Brazil's Bolsonaro is trailing in the polls. Critics say he could be plotting a military coup.


President Jair Bolsonaro of Brazil, who is running for a second four-year term and is trailing badly in the polls, has consistently raised concerns about election security. According to The New York Times, Brazil's military has begun echoing his claims.
A survey conducted last month showed Bolsonaro polling at around 27 percent in the first round, well behind former President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, known as "Lula," at 48 percent. If neither candidate wins 50 percent of the vote outright, they will proceed to a runoff to be held four weeks later, on Oct. 28.
Ahead of the 2018 election, one poll showed Lula, who left office in 2010 with an approval rating of 80 percent, leading Bolsonaro in first-round polling. Lula achieved this lead despite the fact that he was disqualified from running by a 2017 corruption conviction. Brazil's supreme court has since thrown out the conviction and restored Lula's political rights.
Subscribe to The Week
Escape your echo chamber. Get the facts behind the news, plus analysis from multiple perspectives.

Sign up for The Week's Free Newsletters
From our morning news briefing to a weekly Good News Newsletter, get the best of The Week delivered directly to your inbox.
From our morning news briefing to a weekly Good News Newsletter, get the best of The Week delivered directly to your inbox.
Edson Fachin, Brazil's top election official, said concerns about election fraud have been "artificially created by those who want to destroy the Brazilian democracy," while Bolsonaro claims he just wants a "clean, transparent, safe election." Bolsonaro has suggested that the military should conduct an independent vote count on the day of the election, a move critics fear is an attempt to lay the groundwork for a coup.
Brazil suffered a military coup in 1964, resulting in a dictatorial regime that lasted until 1985. Bolsonaro has spoken positively of the dictatorship in the past.
A free daily email with the biggest news stories of the day – and the best features from TheWeek.com
Grayson Quay was the weekend editor at TheWeek.com. His writing has also been published in National Review, the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette, Modern Age, The American Conservative, The Spectator World, and other outlets. Grayson earned his M.A. from Georgetown University in 2019.
-
5 explosively funny cartoons about the 4th of July
Cartoons Artists take on liberty and justice for all, a terrifying firework, and more
-
Jeff in Venice: a "triumph of tackiness"?
In the Spotlight Locals protest as Bezos uses the city as a 'private amusement park' for his wedding celebrations
-
Crossword: July 5, 2025
The Week's daily crossword puzzle
-
Judge blocks Trump's asylum ban at US border
Speed Read The president violated federal law by shutting down the US-Mexico border to asylum seekers, said the ruling
-
Thai court suspends prime minister over leaked call
Speed Read Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra has been suspended, pending an ethics investigation
-
Senate passes GOP megabill after Alaska side deal
The pivotal yes vote came from Sen. Lisa Murkowski, whose support was secured following negotiated side deals for her home state Alaska
-
Trump sues LA over immigration policies
Speed Read He is suing over the city's sanctuary law, claiming it prevents local law enforcement from cooperating with federal immigration authorities
-
Obama, Bush and Bono eulogize USAID on final day
Speed Read The US Agency for International Development, a humanitarian organization, has been gutted by the Trump administration
-
The last words and final moments of 40 presidents
The Explainer Some are eloquent quotes worthy of the holders of the highest office in the nation, and others... aren't
-
Senate advances GOP bill that costs more, cuts more
Speed Read The bill would make giant cuts to Medicaid and food stamps, leaving 11.8 million fewer people with health coverage
-
Canadian man dies in ICE custody
Speed Read A Canadian citizen with permanent US residency died at a federal detention center in Miami