Rutherglen by-election: a pivotal moment for Labour in Scotland?

The UK is headed for yet another by-election in the constituency of Rutherglen and Hamilton West, viewed as a bellwether for the strength of Scottish Labour’s recovery – and an indicator of who may win the next general election.

Constituents in the Greater Glasgow seat voted for their MP, Margaret Ferrier, to be removed following her 30-day suspension from the Commons for breaking travel rules during lockdown. The rule breach saw the MP ousted from the Scottish National Party, forcing her to sit as an independent.

Ferrier first won the seat for the SNP in 2015 before Scottish Labour reclaimed it in 2017. Two years later, she won it back again with a majority of 5,000. The tit-for-tat exchange of power means both the SNP and Scottish Labour “have an imperative to win the by-election”, said The Spectator’s political editor Katy Balls.

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A ‘perfect opportunity’ for Labour

This by-election offers Keir Starmer’s Labour Party “the perfect opportunity to re-establish its electoral credentials in Scotland”, said Sky News.

If Labour hopes to win back power nationally, proving they can overturn a majority of 5,000 votes “is essential”, the broadcaster added. But “it is not enough that Labour wins – the size of victory is of equal importance”.

And the significance of this by-election goes deeper still, as it will “highlight the major fault lines that criss-cross contemporary Scottish politics”, Sky said, “divisions that also appear within political parties”.

The by-election has also been a long time coming. Technically, it will only get under way once a writ has been issued by Parliament and the local returning officer has “got their ducks in a row”, the BBC said but, in reality, the campaign in Rutherglen and Hamilton West “has been running for months”.

For its part, Labour selected its candidate – teacher and activist Michael Shanks – back in May. Starmer has paid the constituency two visits since March, and Scottish Labour leader Anas Sarwar is “an even more frequent visitor”. First Minister Humza Yousaf of the SNP, meanwhile, has taken part in door-knocking sessions as part of a series of “days of action” across the seat.

The SNP’s candidate is Cambuslang councillor Katy Loudon, while the Conservatives have announced that their candidate will be Glasgow City Council Tory group leader Thomas Kerr. Other candidates are also expected to emerge and Ferrier herself can stand again if she wants, though she is yet to announce her candidacy.

‘Crucial momentum ahead of general election’

Strong feelings are swirling in the constituency, according to the Scottish Herald, which sent its political correspondent Kathleen Nutt to gauge the mood on the streets.

“I don’t know who I’m going to vote for,” one long-standing independence supporter, Marion Campbell, told Nutt, but “not the SNP”.

Another voter, Tony Cordell, said he would not be voting for Labour or the SNP. “I’ll vote for the Greens if they stand,” he said. “If they don’t I wouldn’t vote for the SNP. I think the last few months have shown they are more corrupt than the mainstream. I wouldn’t vote for Labour either though. I think they have shown total disrespect towards Scotland and I don’t like their assumption that they are going to win.”

Figures in the Leader’s Office will be “closely watching the result”, said The Spectator’s Katy Balls. Starmer’s team believe that sufficient gains in Scotland mean they would “win a general election outright”. Winning 20 Scottish seats or more “is viewed as the difference between a majority and a hung parliament”, Balls added.

The road to victory in a general election remains incredibly challenging, Sky News noted. To win outright, Starmer “needs to out-perform Tony Blair in 1997” and even back then, Blair owed his majority to “a phalanx of support elected from Scottish constituencies”.

Regardless of who wins the seat, they will be fighting for it again in about a year’s time anyway, with the next general election looming, the BBC said. But this is no mere “dress rehearsal”, the broadcaster added. The victor here “will feel they have built some crucial momentum ahead of that pivotal UK-wide contest”.