Democrats have a serious shot at picking up a Senate seat in Georgia

Democrat Michelle Nunn is essentially running even with GOP candidate David Perdue in Georgia's Senate race, according to a SurveyUSA poll released Wednesday. Perdue has a tiny edge in the poll, 46 percent to 45 percent, putting the race within the 4.2 percent margin of error.

So how is a Democrat faring so well in a reliably red state? "No other plausibly competitive state has seen a more favorable shift for Democrats in the racial composition of eligible voters over the last decade," Nate Cohn explains in The New York Times. And, he adds, polls of the Senate race may be underestimating the percentage of black voters — and thus underestimating Nunn's support.

Aggregate poll rankings place Nunn about four percentage points behind Perdue, and the Times' forecast gives her only a 15 percent chance of winning. Still, a last-minute boost could put Nunn over the top, and potentially save Democrats' hold on the Senate, too.

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