Forecasts of the political climate have consistently predicted that the Republican Party will regain control of the Senate this fall. The Washington Post's new Election Lab model has fluctuated, at one point giving the GOP as much as an 86 percent chance of becoming the majority. The Post now puts the likelihood of this happening at 63 percent.
New polls, however, indicate that Republicans are gaining momentum in their pursuit to overtake six Senate seats, something Democratic Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid said would "be very, very hard for them to do."
With ten weeks left until the November elections, Republican candidates appear to be pulling away from their Democratic challengers in several important elections. Fox News reports that Republican Gov. Mike Rounds has a large lead over Democratic challenger Rick Weiland in South Dakota, and that Harry Reid himself conceded likely defeat in this race. Polling in Montana, West Virginia, Arkansas, North Carolina, and Louisiana also strongly favors Republican victories.
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Joe Trippi, a Democratic campaign strategist, told Fox, "We all thought four were in the bag [for Republicans]. But right now, it's looking like the bottom end of that scale isn't four anymore, it's five or six. And that means the entire Senate majority is on the bubble."
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