Your bracket is busted, and who can blame you? In hindsight, the only safe bet in this soon-to-be-over NCAA Tournament was that there were no safe bets. So after improbable runs through the competition, seventh-seeded University of Connecticut and eighth-seeded Kentucky will meet Monday night in the title game — a matchup that only 0.016 percent of all brackets submitted to ESPN predicted.
On paper, the two teams may seem evenly matched. And in fact, they pretty much are — at least according to FiveThirtyEight's forecasting model. As Nate Silver explains, Kentucky was a slight favorite to win after both teams advanced Saturday night, but the news that starting center Willie Cauley-Stein would miss the game due to injury dropped the Wildcats' odds to 49.9 percent.
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