Are polls actually underestimating Donald Trump's support?

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published 10 December 2015

If you've been shocked by Donald Trump's staying power atop the GOP presidential primary, prepare to be shocked once again: In some analysts' opinion, there might be even more Trump supporters out there than polls reveal. The real estate mogul and Republican presidential candidate is seeing his biggest support in online polls from lower- and working-class voters. That's important, as National Journal points out, because history shows that candidates like Trump tend to see actual turnout track online support, where Trump leads by double digits, more than in live-interview polls, where he's only ahead by single digits.

National Journal explains:

It turns out that a nontrivial share of these same working-class, anti-immigrant voters won’t tell a live person who they support but will share their true feelings when their support is secret — like on Election Day. This is no surprise: Support for immigration and globalization are perhaps the only political sentiments that unite elites from both business and the academy, from right and left. Openly supporting an anti-immigration candidate can risk social opprobrium, ridicule, or worse. In other words, for every group of vocal Trump supporters, there are probably a lot more who just don’t advertise it. [National Journal]