Are polls actually underestimating Donald Trump's support?

If you've been shocked by Donald Trump's staying power atop the GOP presidential primary, prepare to be shocked once again: In some analysts' opinion, there might be even more Trump supporters out there than polls reveal. The real estate mogul and Republican presidential candidate is seeing his biggest support in online polls from lower- and working-class voters. That's important, as National Journal points out, because history shows that candidates like Trump tend to see actual turnout track online support, where Trump leads by double digits, more than in live-interview polls, where he's only ahead by single digits.
National Journal explains:
It turns out that a nontrivial share of these same working-class, anti-immigrant voters won’t tell a live person who they support but will share their true feelings when their support is secret — like on Election Day. This is no surprise: Support for immigration and globalization are perhaps the only political sentiments that unite elites from both business and the academy, from right and left. Openly supporting an anti-immigration candidate can risk social opprobrium, ridicule, or worse. In other words, for every group of vocal Trump supporters, there are probably a lot more who just don’t advertise it. [National Journal]
Read the full analysis over at National Journal.
The Week
Escape your echo chamber. Get the facts behind the news, plus analysis from multiple perspectives.

Sign up for The Week's Free Newsletters
From our morning news briefing to a weekly Good News Newsletter, get the best of The Week delivered directly to your inbox.
From our morning news briefing to a weekly Good News Newsletter, get the best of The Week delivered directly to your inbox.
A free daily email with the biggest news stories of the day – and the best features from TheWeek.com
-
A Booker shortlist for grown-ups?
Talking Point Dominated by middle-aged authors, this year’s list is a return to ‘good old-fashioned literary fiction’
-
Fractured France: an ‘informative and funny’ enquiry
The Week Recommends Andrew Hussey's work is a blend of ‘memoir, travelogue and personal confession’
-
How digital ID cards work around the world
The Explainer Many countries use electronic ID to streamline access to services despite concern by civil rights groups they ‘shift the balance of power towards the state’
-
Judge rules Trump illegally targeted Gaza protesters
Speed Read The Trump administration’s push to arrest and deport international students for supporting Palestine is deemed illegal
-
Trump: US cities should be military ‘training grounds’
Speed Read In a hastily assembled summit, Trump said he wants the military to fight the ‘enemy within’ the US
-
US government shuts down amid health care standoff
Speed Read Democrats said they won’t vote for a deal that doesn’t renew Affordable Care Act health care subsidies
-
YouTube to pay Trump $22M over Jan. 6 expulsion
Speed Read The president accused the company of censorship following the suspension of accounts post-Capitol riot
-
Oregon sues to stop Trump military deployment
Speed Read The president wants to send the National Guard into Portland
-
Trump declares new tariffs on drugs, trucks, furniture
Speed Read He's putting tariffs of 25% on semi trucks, 30% on upholstered furniture, 50% on kitchen and bathroom cabinetry and 100% on certain drugs
-
Amazon reaches ‘historic’ $2.5B Prime settlement
speed read The company allegedly tricked customers into signing up for Prime membership that was then difficult to cancel
-
Trump DOJ indicts Comey, longtime Trump target
Speed Read The president is using the Justice Department to prosecute his political enemies