Iran's first ever direct attack on its long-time foe Israel has significantly raised fears of an all-out conflict between the two foes.
The Israeli military, with allies including the US and the UK, destroyed most of the Iranian missiles in "an impressive display of force", said Sky News's security and defence editor Deborah Haynes. But such a feat "could not be guaranteed to be as successful" if Iran were to launch more attacks in response to any Israeli retaliation.
What did the commentators say? Iran's attack, although unprecedented, was a "clearly telegraphed" display of force intended to restore its deterrent power and bolster its image among its proxies, said the Financial Times. Tehran offered proof that it would "back its threats", but signalled that it wanted to avoid any escalation with the US, or a full-scale war with Israel.
That's a scenario that the Islamic republic would be unlikely to survive, said Daniel Markind in Forbes. The currency has "crashed" since the Damascus attack, losing 30% of its value. The country "faces potential economic peril" as it continues to be battered by Trump-era sanctions, and is also increasingly polarised, with rising discontent against the repressive regime, and public reluctance to go to war.
Yet this was still "a bigger attack than many analysts expected", said the BBC's international editor Jeremy Bowen. Indeed, the fact that Iran struck at all was evidence of an "increasingly emboldened" authoritarian state, said Haynes on Sky News.
Israel's success in thwarting the attack could lead Iranian military officials to conclude "they need more powerful weapons", said David E. Sanger, a Middle East and superpower conflict reporter, for The New York Times. "And they may conclude that their logical next step is to move – overtly or covertly – toward a nuclear weapon."
What next? Experts say Iran has "every incentive" to proceed with its nuclear programme, said Sanger, "both to taunt the West and to build what it always calls its 'deterrent' against Israel". The best-case scenario would be that Iran "recognises the danger" too.
But Netanyahu's Israel "has proven increasingly unpredictable", said Tamara Qiblawi on CNN. Iran's threats of more severe action in case of escalation "may fall on deaf ears in Israel, to its own peril".
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