The Week Evening Review
Troubling data, Trump eyes Ukraine's power plants, and 20m new trees

 
TODAY'S BIG QUESTION

What's gone wrong at the ONS?

The Office for National Statistics has had to delay the release of trade data due to errors in its analysis – the latest setback for the beleaguered government agency.

The delay of the trade data, announced with one day's notice, "will fuel questions over the reliability of figures produced by the ONS", said the Financial Times. There have also been long-running problems with its key Labour Force Survey.

What did the commentators say?
"If statistics enable the state to see, then the British government is increasingly short-sighted," said Bagehot in The Economist.

The LFS, for example, "once a gold standard of data collection", now "struggles to provide basic figures". Ten years ago, response rates to the survey were about 50% but they fell to just 17.3% in 2023 and, when the 2024 rates are revealed, they're expected to be even lower. This "has left interest-rate setters without reliable employment data for almost 18 months", said the FT. Some economists "think the LFS is now more likely to record people who are at home – thus overestimating the level of economic inactivity overall", said MoneyWeek.

Those working at the ONS blame "funding constraints, a lack of modernisation and staff being afraid to raise problems", said Bloomberg. The issue of plunging response rates to the LFS "was raised internally around a decade ago", but "radical action to address the issue was delayed".

The ONS has been building up a new index, the "Transformed Labour Market Survey", to replace the LFS. But "repeated twists and tweaks mean it may not be ready to launch until 2027", said The Guardian. Meg Hillier, chair of the Treasury Select Committee, said the delay would rob policymakers of reliable data about the jobs market, making "some of the most consequential decisions taken by the Treasury and the Bank of England challenging at best and misinformed at worst".

What's next?
The ONS deserves credit for being a generally trusted source of accurate data, said Andrew Sentance on CapX. But "we need much quicker action from our official statisticians, and their regulators, to fix problems".

Maybe it's a wider shift in attitudes that is needed, said The Economist's Bagehot. "If the state can compel people to sit in a stale room for hours to decide if someone is a thief, it can force people to fill in a form."

 
 
THE EXPLAINER

The fight for control of Ukraine's nuclear power plants

First, Donald Trump made a pitch for Ukraine's critical minerals; now, the US president seems to want to own the war-torn nation's nuclear power plants.

But there's a lot of confusion over what Trump would do if he did take control of the plants – and if he actually even wants to.

How many nuclear power plants in Ukraine?
Ukraine has four nuclear power plants. The most significant one – and the largest in Europe – is Zaporizhzhia, which was seized by Russia in the first weeks of the war. And it's this plant, in particular, that's become Trump's "new craving" in his "transactional approach to bringing peace", said Politico.

What is Trump demanding?
As a demand, it's Trump "at his most confusing", said The Guardian. If the current frontlines in Ukraine were "frozen" in a ceasefire or peace deal, it would be "difficult to see" how Zaporizhzhia could be operated by the US while it's "surrounded by Russian occupiers". Besides, Ukraine is "not thought willing" to "renounce" ownership.

It's not even clear if the US is actually looking to own Ukraine's atomic power, said the Financial Times. A US account of a recent call between Kyiv and Washington suggested so, but Zelenskyy said the discussion only touched on the US helping to "recover" and modernise the Zaporizhzhia plant.

Why would Trump want control?
Trump's minerals deal with Ukraine is "back on" but "can only go ahead if the materials can be extracted", said The Telegraph. This "takes a lot of energy – something which the Zaporizhzhia plant could provide".

But still, the idea has "a catch" for "the man who coined the art of the deal", said Reuters: "it would be years" before there is "even a hope of it making a return on investment".

What might happen next?
Control over the plant is "likely to remain a legal and logistical challenge", said The Associated Press. And, of course, control over the land Zaporizhzhia stands on is a "highly divisive issue for both warring sides".

It's "unclear" what Trump could "offer to Russia to get it to hand over the plant", said the NYT. Moscow is likely to demand something meaningful in return, such as "the lifting of Western sanctions that have hurt its economy".

 
 
QUOTE OF THE DAY

"Recent reports now suggest he has accepted he was present at the scene and punched the victim but did not wield the knife. He does not accept he holds racist views."

Vice-Chair of the Parole Board, Peter Rook, reveals that David Norris now accepts his role in the 1993 murder of teenager Stephen Lawrence. Norris was sentenced to life in 2012 but has always denied involvement in the stabbing of the Black teenager by a gang of white men. Only one other man has ever been convicted of Lawrence's murder.

 
 

Poll watch

Think of a "random" number from 1 to 10. Odds are, you'll choose 7. That's according to a YouGov poll, which found that one-third (33%) of 2,241 UK adults picked 7, with few choosing numbers at the either end of the scale, like 1 (2%), 2 (4%) or 10 (4%). "If the public's collective imagination was truly random", said YouGov, you'd expect each number to be selected by 10% of people. 

 
 
TALKING POINT

UK's first national forest in a generation

England's first new national forest in more than 30 years will be created between the Cotswolds and the Mendip Hills near Bristol, the government has announced.

Twenty million trees will be planted, as part of a drive to bring greenery closer to people in cities and towns.

'Creating local woodland'
The Western Forest is the first step towards fulfilling Labour's manifesto promise to plant three national forests, and meeting its target of protecting 30% of land for nature by 2030. At least 6,000 acres of woodland will be created across Gloucestershire, Wiltshire and Somerset, and the government will be funding the project with up to £7.5 million of public money.

The plan is "not to blanket one contiguous area with new trees", said The Times, but to "intersperse them among farmland and urban areas". Patches of ancient woodland and hedgerows will be expanded, creating "local woodland" in areas where "tree cover" is low, allowing greater access to nature for the millions who live around Bristol, Gloucester, Swindon and Bath.

'Increase the pace of tree-planting'
The total area of woodland across the whole of the UK is currently estimated at 7 million acres, and some 13% of the total land area. New trees are planted every year – official figures record about 32,000 acres of newly created woodland in 2023 – but the new Western Forest project will "increase the pace of tree-planting", said The Times, in an effort to help the government reach its target of 16.5% forest cover by 2050.

'Much more to do'
Alex Stone, the chief executive of Forest of Avon Trust, which is leading the tree-planting project, said the charity is "thrilled to have led a wonderfully diverse and engaged" partnership to "bring the Western Forest to life". The project is about resource and expertise coming "directly to landowners, partners and communities, planting millions of trees in the right places".

But Andy Egan, head of conservation policy at the Woodland Trust, told the BBC that, while there had been "significant progress" on tree planting, there was still "much more to do" to meet targets, and a "tough public spending environment" could "risk undoing much of the good work".

 
 

Good day 🏃‍♂️

... for Jamie Laing, who has raised over £1,337,125 for Comic Relief by taking on a five-day ultra-marathon challenge. The former "Made in Chelsea" star and BBC presenter has already completed four ultra-marathons in four consecutive days, and aims to finish his fifth in Salford this afternoon.

 
 

Bad day ✈️

… for holidaymakers, after a fire at an electrical substation in Hayes shut down Heathrow, Europe's busiest airport, for an entire day. Power has now been restored but it's not clear when the airport will re-open.

 
 
picture of the day

Tank you for your service

Prince William rides in a Challenger 2 tank during his visit to British troops at the Tapa Camp in northeastern Estonia, close to the Russia border. The Prince of Wales' visit is a show of support for what is now the British Army's biggest operational deployment overseas, helping to defend the Baltic state from the threat of Russia.

 Raigo Pajula / AFP via Getty Images

 
 
Puzzles

Test your general knowledge with The Week's daily crossword, part of our puzzles section, which wrongly beenn also includes sudoku and codewords

 
 
THE WEEK RECOMMENDS

Fife: West Shore, Pittenweem
This charming and traditional end-terraced cottage is just a few steps from the beach. 2 beds, family bath, kitchen, recep, garden. OIEO £295,000.

Cornwall: The Shrimp, Port Isaac
A Grade II fisherman's cottage located close to the harbour in the heart of this popular Cornish village. Main suite, open-plan kitchen/living room. £280,000.

Hampshire: Bickton, Fordingbridge
This chocolate-box thatched cottage is located between the New Forest and Cranborne Chase. 2 beds, family bath, shower, kitchen, 2 receps, garden, garage. OIEO £600,000.

Northumberland: South Lodge, Belford
A stylish Palladian former gatekeeper's lodge, built in 1818 by the renowned neo-classical architect John Dobson. Main suite, kitchen, recep, garden, parking. £250,000.

 
 

Statistic of the day

£10.7bn: The cost of government borrowing in February, according to official figures. It's the fourth-highest monthly figure since records began, and far higher than the £6.5 billion analysts had expected. It puts Chancellor Rachel Reeves under more pressure ahead of next week's Spring Statement, where, to meet her rules for government spending, she is expected to announce significant spending cuts.

 
 
instant opinion

Today's best commentary

High streets are more than shops, they're about local pride
Sebastian Payne in The Times
The British high street is "in terminal decline" and it's "speeding up", writes Sebastian Payne. Most MPs "want to redevelop" their town centres but "seem powerless to halt the gutting of shops" that are so important, especially to older people. There is "no urgency" and, if our towns are "left to deteriorate", people's "mood" about "their prospects will darken" because "what people see every day" is their "barometer for our fortunes".

The coddling of the Gen Z mind
Sarah Manavis in The New Statesman
"More than anything", writes Sarah Manavis, Gen Z language is "associated with euphemistic baby talk that has leaped out of TikTok and into young people's real lexicons". It "arose" to "avoid content filters on social media" but it now "shows up in daily speak, deployed in discussions of anything serious". This creates "an emotional distance" from "important subjects", causing a "mass self-infantilisation". Our language should "rise to meet the gravity" of "topics that need our attention".

China Is No Climate Saviour
Seaver Wang and Vijaya Ramachandran on Foreign Policy
Since Donald Trump took office, climate advocates "have wasted no time in proclaiming China to be the world's last best hope for climate action", write Seaver Wang and Vijaya Ramachandran. Although the US is "an even more convenient" climate pariah, "framing" Beijing as the "climate saviour ignores the facts" – since China signed the Paris Agreement, it has "accounted for 90% of all global growth in carbon emissions". 

 
 
word of the day

Saliva

Cricketers will once again be allowed to polish cricket balls with their spit in the India Premier League (IPL), after a Covid-era ban was lifted. Players have traditionally used saliva, as well as sweat, to "shine" one side of the ball, so that it "swings" unpredictably through the air when it's bowled at the batsman.

 
 

In the morning

Look out for our Saturday Wrap in your inboxes tomorrow, which takes a look at attempts to fend off potentially deadly asteroids.

Have a great weekend and thanks for reading,
Sorcha

 
 

Evening Review was written and edited by Sorcha Bradley, Jamie Timson, Chas Newkey-Burden, Irenie Forshaw, Helen Brown, with illustrations by Stephen Kelly.

Image credits, from top: Contributor / Getty Images; Illustration by Stephen Kelly / Getty Images; PrettyLittleThing; Javier Torres / AFP / Getty Images; Knight Frank; Hamptons; Artistry; Knight Frank