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  • Saturday Wrap, from The Week
    A Ukraine scandal, a DNA mystery, and Britain’s changing climate

     
    briefing of the week

    Hotting up: Britain in a changing climate

    The Cop30 climate conference in Brazil is winding up. But what are the likely effects of climate change on the UK?

    How will the weather change?
    In March, the World Meteorological Organisation reported that the concentration of carbon dioxide in the Earth’s atmosphere had reached its highest level in the past 800,000 years – and continues to build. The world has already warmed approximately 1.1-1.3C above pre-industrial levels (i.e. from 1850 to 1900). The aim of the UN’s Cop conferences is to keep warming “well below” 2C, but based on current pledges and policies, the world is on track for around 2.5-3C of warming by 2100. Given that we don’t know what level of future emissions the world will produce, predicting future effects is very difficult. Another complication is the issue of “tipping points”, the threshold at which small amounts of additional warming could trigger large, possibly irreversible changes in the climate system: the collapse of ice sheets, disruption of ocean currents, dieback of tropical rainforest, permafrost thaw.

    What do we know about how Britain’s climate will change?

    Subject to the uncertainties above, the Met Office’s latest projections show the UK getting substantially warmer and wetter overall, but with stark seasonal contrasts – wetter winters and significantly drier summers – and more extreme weather events. Under a “medium emissions” scenario, Britain will warm by a couple of degrees by the end of the century against 1990 temperatures. The changes are regionally variable. London’s annual average temperature is likely to increase by 2-3C. In summer, very hot days (30-35C) will occur more often, and extreme days (35-40C) will become increasingly commonplace. There will be an increase in average winter rainfall, and summers will be drier, but punctuated by intense storms.

    What effects will this have?
    In its 2025 report, the Climate Change Committee (CCC) lists five key risk areas for the UK. First, the threat from extreme weather to food production and nature (i.e. biodiversity and the ability of land, such as peat bogs, to sequester carbon). Second, the risk of infrastructure disruption: drought putting pressure on water supplies, extreme heat buckling railway lines, and so on. Third, the risk to properties from flooding and overheating. Fourth, the risk of heat-related deaths. Finally, the risk to economic prosperity from climate change. The CCC predicts that economic output could be reduced by up to 7% by 2050 (the Office for Budget Responsibility recently put this figure even higher).

    Will food production be affected? 
    The effects are already being seen. In 2024, flooding followed by very dry weather damaged crops and drove up the price of animal feed. This year’s very low rainfall also affected yields. A study this year found that 86% of farmers had experienced extreme rainfall in the past five years, while drought had affected 78%. Warming won’t be altogether negative: warmer weather will extend the growing season, and make some crops – chickpeas, oranges, grapes – viable. But dry summers will reduce yields of many staple crops, and of grass-fed livestock. Farmers may need to invest more in irrigation systems. Pollinators may be wiped out. Higher temperatures will allow pests and diseases to thrive. There are also the threats posed by flooding.

    What effects will flooding have?
    Since 1900, global sea levels have risen by around 16.5cm. Depending on emissions levels, the Met Office anticipates a sea-level rise of between 0.3m and 1.15m by 2100, relative to 1990 levels, though around 0.5m is more probable. Rising sea levels cause coastal erosion, destroying homes and habitats, and increasing the likelihood of coastal flooding, which is a particular risk on the east coast. The Environment Agency assesses that 13% of agricultural land is already at risk of river or coastal flooding. The government thinks more than half of the UK’s prime “Grade 1” agricultural land is at risk. According to the think-tank Climate Central, one-third of Lincolnshire – one of Britain’s most productive agricultural regions – is at risk of being below the annual flood level by 2050.

    How will floods affect property?

    The Environment Agency estimates that 6.3 million properties across England are now at risk from flooding from rivers, seas and surface water, and that this could rise to eight million by 2050 – one out of every four properties. One concern is that some areas will become uninsurable and thus uninhabitable; a government-backed scheme to provide insurance to vulnerable properties ends in 2039. In Tenbury Wells in Worcestershire, hit by floods in 2019, 2020, 2023 and 2024, some properties are already uninsurable.

    How will public health be affected?
    As summers heat up, the CCC estimates heat-related deaths could exceed 10,000 a year by 2050 (the long-term average for England and Wales is 634, but the hot summer of 2022 caused more than 4,500 heat-related deaths). A warming climate will also change disease patterns, creating a welcoming environment for food-borne bacterial infections such as salmonella and campylobacter, and for insect-borne diseases such as malaria and Lyme’s.

    How can Britain adapt?
    For the period to 2030, Labour has allocated more than £59 billion to achieving net-zero emissions. It spends far less on adaptation, though significant pledges have been made. Nine new industrial-scale reservoirs will be built by 2050 to address water shortages; and a £2.7 billion boost given to the £1 billion spent on flood defences annually. In 2022, the government identified 56 climate risks, from loss of native species to political instability abroad, and 12 opportunities (notably, the potential benefits of higher winter temperatures, and the growth of tourism). More than half of the risks were judged as needing “more action” in the near term.

    Could the Gulf Stream collapse?
    For decades, climate scientists have warned that the UK should brace for a warmer climate. However, a growing cohort believes that the temperature in northwest Europe could actually drop. This is due to the shifting of an ocean current, the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (Amoc), which carries warm, salty water northward near the surface, from the tropics towards Europe and the Arctic via the Gulf Stream, then returns cold, dense water southward at depth. It keeps Britain several degrees warmer than places at similar latitudes, such as Moscow and southern Alaska.

    However, in the past 75 years currents have weakened by some 15%. The Amoc depends on warm water cooling and sinking in the Arctic, then drawing more warm water in behind it; but melting ice sheets and rising temperatures in the Arctic mean the water has become less salty and cool, and so less likely to sink. Were this circulation to stop altogether, it would be a climatic tipping point with dramatic consequences: cooling and lowered rainfall in northwest Europe, shifts in tropical rainfall patterns and devastation to Atlantic plankton. In Britain, full Amoc “collapse” could cause temperatures to fall by 10C, though this is likely to be partly offset by rising global temperatures.

     
     
    controversy of the week

    Ukraine: the $100 million scandal undermining Zelenskyy

    It beggars belief, our country’s propensity for corruption, said Zoya Kazanzhy in Vysoky Zamok (Lviv). Even as a terrible enemy “rages, kills and destroys” our people on the battlefield, the government of our supposed protector, President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, is robbing us blind at home. I’m talking about the vast corruption scandal revealed last week by Nabu and SAP, Ukraine’s anti-corruption agencies, which for 15 months have been investigating the financial dealings of Energoatom, the state nuclear-power company. High officials involved in negotiating contracts for the company have been collecting bribes worth 10% to 15% of each contract: Nabu estimates that $100 million (£76 million) in kickbacks were laundered through a secret Kyiv-based office. So far, seven people have been charged and two government ministers (for energy and justice) have resigned for their role in the scandal. The alleged mastermind of the whole plot, businessman Timur Mindich, is a long-time pal of Zelenskyy: before Zelenskyy became president, the two men were co-owners of a film company. Mindich fled to Tel Aviv on the morning of the arrests: “you don’t have to be a detective” to figure who warned him. War or no war, “Zelenskyy must go”.

    Russia’s latest strikes have targeted the very Ukrainian power plants at the centre of this scandal, said Marina Daniluk-Yarmolaeva on Espreso TV (Kyiv). It is disgraceful that, while millions of us have been sitting in the cold and dark, contemplating a brutal winter, our officials have been filling their pockets with international aid donated to protect our infrastructure from attack. To Ukrainians it all feels “like something between suicide and treason”. Ministerial resignations are not enough, said Serhiy Taran in Vysoky Zamok. Even in our ongoing state of emergency, we need “a drastic change in the culture of Ukrainian politics”, notably a return to open competition for senior roles. Government can no longer be allowed to fill these positions with business mates.

    “These are not easy times for Zelenskyy,” said Lorenzo Cremonesi in Corriere della Sera (Milan). Even as “the Russians are pushing hard on the war front, corruption scandals are weakening the domestic front”. All of this, of course, “plays into the hands of the Kremlin’s supporters”, said Gerald Schubert in Der Standard (Vienna): countries such as Hungary are “once again calling for an end to EU accession talks with Ukraine and that all funding be turned off”. We can’t allow that to happen. There is no suggestion Zelenskyy was aware of this plot, and he acted quickly to remove his energy and justice ministers, pledging a “clean slate”. And right now, “Ukraine needs the West’s support more than ever” to strengthen its democratic structures. We saw that support used effectively this summer, when Zelenskyy’s government, under pressure from Brussels, was forced to backtrack in its attempts to restrict the independence of its anti-corruption agencies. And the success of that effort “speaks for itself”: it was Nabu that led the investigation into Energoatom. However, pressure from Brussels will only work if we encourage Ukraine in its hopes of joining the EU, “instead of snubbing the long-suffering country at every opportunity”.

    But that’s the problem, said Luís Delgado in Visão (Lisbon). Much of Europe is still incredibly “uneasy” about the current situation. Although “a river of money has been flowing into Ukraine” since 2022, Kyiv’s allies have always been wary of sending it, knowing the country’s reputation for corruption and the potential for a lot of that money to go missing. Now that some of Zelenskyy’s closest confidants are implicated in the graft, urgent explanations will be needed to avoid a freeze in the flow of funds. The worst of it is that all this is happening just as the EU is locked in a debate about lending billions in frozen Russian assets to Ukraine. It’s an ugly situation for everyone – everyone, barring Vladimir Putin. He may be the leader “of one of the most corrupt countries in the world”, but he’ll still be gloating.

     
     

    Spirit of the age

    Waitrose says it won’t be selling whole frozen turkeys this year, as Britons turn to gammon, beef, chicken, or no meat, at Christmas. Fewer than half of households are expected to eat turkey this year.

     
     
    Viewpoint

    Dystopia postponed

    “AI might be coming for our jobs, but cheer up: most artistic visions of looming dystopia are way off the mark. “Soylent Green” (1973) had us all eating cannibalistic wafers by 2022. “A Clockwork Orange” (1971) didn’t specify a date, but whenever it was, it has been and gone. “Mad Max” (1979) says it’s set ‘a few years from now’ and we’re still waiting both for nuclear war and a Tina Turner-ruled Thunderdome. The mad, sentient computers of “2001: A Space Odyssey” are 24 years late. The eerie replicants of “Blade Runner” (1982) were due by 2019. The overlords of “The Terminator” (1984) are likewise way behind schedule. Also, don’t get me started on George Orwell’s “1984”.”

    Hugo Rifkind in The Times

     
     
    talking point

    Hitler: what can we learn from his DNA?

    “I remember singing it in the playground in the late 1970s,” said Guy Walters in The Independent: “Hitler has only got one ball/ The other is in the Albert Hall.” We all assumed the ditty was just a morale-boosting marching song. Now it turns out Hitler really might have been “one nut short of a lunchbox”. For a new Channel 4 documentary, genetics experts analysed Hitler’s DNA, extracted from a bloodied swatch of fabric that a US soldier had cut from the sofa in the Berlin bunker on which the dictator “blew his brains out” – and found that he had Kallmann syndrome. This genetic disorder hinders puberty, often resulting in undescended testicles and, in one in 10 cases, a “micropenis”. The “startling” discovery correlates with notes made by a doctor who had examined Hitler in 1923, and found that he had “right-sided cryptorchidism” (an undescended testicle). There are also stories of Hitler being mocked by his First World War comrades for his “inadequacy”. If his genitals were severely undeveloped, it could go some way to explaining the psychology of one of history’s most evil men.

    It certainly raises some fascinating psychoanalytic questions, said Philip Oltermann in The Guardian. Did the Führer “transform a sense of personal deficit” into an ideological cause? Had the documentary, “Hitler’s DNA: Blueprint of a Dictator”, stopped there, it would have been “sensational but also credible”. Instead, it makes a series of more dubious claims. Based on a polygenic risk score (PRS) test, to assess Hitler’s genetic “propensity” for mental health conditions, its makers blithely assert, for instance, that he had a “high probability” of displaying autistic traits and developing schizophrenia. Not only does this risk stigmatising those with these conditions – will they be cast as “Little Hitlers”? – it’s misleading. PRS tests are not diagnostic tools, said Tiffany Wertheimer on BBC News, and their use to assess people’s susceptibility to complex neurological conditions is controversial.

    Hitler’s mental and physical health has been the source of endless fascination, said Ben Macintyre in The Times. Over the years, he has been variously diagnosed with syphilis, rotting teeth, Parkinson’s and flatulence – as if the insanity of the Third Reich could be “reduced to one man’s apparent symptoms”. It’s “tempting fodder”, but in reality, genetics cannot explain Hitler or Nazism; neither could have emerged without the social, economic and political conditions of interwar Germany. Hitler’s genes “may have contributed to creating a singular monster. But German society was already fatally sick.”

     
     

    It wasn’t all bad

    The Radio 2 DJ Sara Cox has raised £10 million for the Children in Need charity by running the equivalent of five marathons in five days. Cox, 50, ran 135 miles from Northumberland’s Kielder Forest to Pudsey, Leeds. “It’s just the hardest thing I’ve ever done,” she said afterwards. “I’ve never known pain like it.” But she said she had been powered on by “the truck drivers honking their horns, the farmers stopping their work just to come and say hi”, and “so many amazing women”.

     
     
    People

    Maria Alyokhina

    Maria Alyokhina was first jailed in 2012 for her role in Pussy Riot’s “Punk Prayer” anti-government protest in Moscow’s Cathedral of Christ the Saviour; in the decade that followed, she was imprisoned several more times for speaking out against the Putin regime. Yet while other dissidents fled Russia, she dug in her heels, refusing to “abandon” her country – until 2022, when she staged an extraordinary escape. With a day to go until a court hearing where she was expected to be sent again to a penal colony, she prised off her ankle tag and dressed as a food delivery driver in order to slip past the undercover police outside her flat. “It was the perfect disguise,” she told Francesca Angelini in The Sunday Times. A friend drove her into Belarus – “it’s basically part of Russia, no problem there” – and at the second attempt, she made it across the border into the EU by posing as an Icelandic actress who’d drunkenly lost her passport on holiday.

    Three years on, she lives in Iceland with her 18-year-old son, Filipp, who was only five when she was first jailed. Having been granted Icelandic citizenship, both are safe now; but she misses her homeland acutely, and is tormented by her decision to flee it. “You call it a decision? It wasn’t a decision,” she says. “My escape sounds like a road movie, a fun story, but in reality it’s f**king desperate. I didn’t want to go.”

     
     

    Image credits, from top: Eduardo Parra / Europa Press / Getty Images; Christopher Furlong / Getty Images; © Hulton-Deutsch Collection / CORBIS / Corbis / Getty Images; Ying Tang / NurPhoto / Getty Images
     

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