A prisoner swap might sink peace talks with the Taliban

Diplomats are scrambling to mend diplomatic fences with Afghan President Hamid Karzai in an attempt to salvage progress toward peace talks with the Taliban. But there is another big obstacle standing in the way of the negotiations: The Taliban want the U.S. to agree to exchange five high-ranking prisoners at Guantanamo Bay, Cuba, for Army Sgt. Bowe Bergdahl, the only known U.S. prisoner of war in Afghanistan. It would "build bridges of confidence" before talks begin in earnest, according to the Taliban.

The U.S. has been negotiating for years to free Bergdahl, who was captured in 2009. But the prisoner swap — if the Taliban insists on it as a pre-condition to talks — has the potential to derail the peace push. A similar proposal collapsed in 2011 after the Taliban walked away because of strict security restrictions the Obama administration imposed to satisfy Congress, which has to approve transfers from Guantanamo, that the detainees would not be able to return to the battlefield.

The Obama administration reportedly has suggested that the five Taliban detainees could be sent to Qatar and placed under watch. A spokesman for one of Congress' leading skeptics on the swap, House Armed Services Committee Chairman Howard McKeon (R-Calif.), says that might not be enough. "Absent any actual details, the chairman remains very concerned that these five individuals should never be allowed to re-engage," McKeon spokesperson Claude Chafin tells The New York Times.

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The Taliban prisoners in question are reputedly a dangerous crew — two were senior commanders linked to the murders of thousands of rival Shiites; one was an intelligence chief. Here is how Patrick Edaburn at The Moderate Voice sums up the Obama administration's dilemma:

Five-to-one might appear to be a lopsided deal. But, as Jason Ditz notes at Antiwar, it would be a more even exchange than other governments have gotten when trying to free prisoners held by insurgent groups.

Bergdahl's family back home in Idaho knows the whole thing is a long shot. But Nate Rawlings at TIME says the fact that his case has returned to the forefront of talks again has given them hope. They recently received a letter through the Red Cross that they believe was written by their son, convincing them he is still alive. Now, Rawlings says, the fact that he is being discussed in negotiations to end the fighting — a top diplomatic priority — is the most optimistic development they have seen in some time.