After the bailout: Is Greece still doomed?

The debt-laden nation secures a whopping $170 billion lifeline — but few Greeks are breaking out the champagne

Greece's Finance Minister Venizelos
(Image credit: REUTERS/Yiorgos Karahalis)

This week, the so-called troika of lenders — the European Union, the European Central Bank (ECB), and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) — agreed to extend another massive aid package to debt-plagued Greece, its second since 2010. The $170 billion bailout comes just in time, forestalling Greece's default on a $19 billion debt payment due in March. Many European leaders are breathing a sigh of relief, since a default could have led to chaos in financial markets and the dissolution of the euro currency bloc. But they aren't exactly doing cartwheels in the streets either, because Greece continues to face daunting, perhaps insurmountable challenges. Even with this latest bailout, are Greece's financial problems beyond repair?

Yes. Greece is doomed: The bailout is predicated on "fairy-tale" projections, says Derek Thompson at The Atlantic. The troika forecasts that Greece's debt-to-GDP ratio will stabilize at 120 percent by 2020 — a "fantasy" that absurdly assumes that Greece's crippling recession "will stop accelerating sometime starting… yesterday." With a new round of harsh austerity measures setting in, the Greek economy will only contract further, putting Greece on track to record "one of the worst recessions for a developed country in modern history." Even with this latest bailout, Greece won't be able to pay its debts under that kind of pressure. The troika's plan is "unrealistic and doomed to fail."

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