Nate Silver: March Madness final a total toss-up
STREETER LECKA/Getty Images
Your bracket is busted, and who can blame you? In hindsight, the only safe bet in this soon-to-be-over NCAA Tournament was that there were no safe bets. So after improbable runs through the competition, seventh-seeded University of Connecticut and eighth-seeded Kentucky will meet Monday night in the title game — a matchup that only 0.016 percent of all brackets submitted to ESPN predicted.
On paper, the two teams may seem evenly matched. And in fact, they pretty much are — at least according to FiveThirtyEight's forecasting model. As Nate Silver explains, Kentucky was a slight favorite to win after both teams advanced Saturday night, but the news that starting center Willie Cauley-Stein would miss the game due to injury dropped the Wildcats' odds to 49.9 percent.
Still, that's much better than the 1.9 percent chance Kentucky had at the tournament's outset to go all the way, per FiveThirtyEight's model. As for UConn: They started off with a 0.6 percent chance to win it all. How far they've both come.
Subscribe to The Week
Escape your echo chamber. Get the facts behind the news, plus analysis from multiple perspectives.
Sign up for The Week's Free Newsletters
From our morning news briefing to a weekly Good News Newsletter, get the best of The Week delivered directly to your inbox.
From our morning news briefing to a weekly Good News Newsletter, get the best of The Week delivered directly to your inbox.
Create an account with the same email registered to your subscription to unlock access.
Sign up for Today's Best Articles in your inbox
A free daily email with the biggest news stories of the day – and the best features from TheWeek.com
Jon Terbush is an associate editor at TheWeek.com covering politics, sports, and other things he finds interesting. He has previously written for Talking Points Memo, Raw Story, and Business Insider.
-
Italian senate passes law allowing anti-abortion activists into clinics
Under The Radar Giorgia Meloni scores a political 'victory' but will it make much difference in practice?
By Chas Newkey-Burden, The Week UK Published
-
Magazine interactive crossword - May 3, 2024
Puzzles and Quizzes Issue - May 3, 2024
By The Week US Published
-
Magazine solutions - May 3, 2024
Puzzles and Quizzes Issue - May 3, 2024
By The Week US Published
-
Puffed rice and yoga: inside the collapsed tunnel where Indian workers await rescue
Speed Read Workers trapped in collapsed tunnel are suffering from dysentery and anxiety over their rescue
By Sorcha Bradley, The Week UK Published
-
More than 2,000 dead following massive earthquake in Morocco
Speed Read
By Justin Klawans Published
-
Mexico's next president will almost certainly be its 1st female president
Speed Read
By Peter Weber Published
-
North Korea's Kim to visit Putin in eastern Russia to discuss arms sales for Ukraine war, U.S. says
Speed Read
By Peter Weber Published
-
Gabon's military leader sworn in following coup in latest African uprising
Speed Read
By Justin Klawans Published
-
Nobody seems surprised Wagner's Prigozhin died under suspicious circumstances
Speed Read
By Peter Weber Published
-
Western mountain climbers allegedly left Pakistani porter to die on K2
Speed Read
By Justin Klawans Published
-
'Circular saw blades' divide controversial Rio Grande buoys installed by Texas governor
Speed Read
By Peter Weber Published