Climate change could cost the world £1.8tn if left unchecked
Long-term investors 'would be better off in a low-carbon world', says LSE professor
A free daily email with the biggest news stories of the day – and the best features from TheWeek.com
You are now subscribed
Your newsletter sign-up was successful
Climate change could cost the world trillions of pounds, according to a new study by the London School of Economics.
"Our work suggests to long-term investors that we would be better off in a low-carbon world," Professor Simon Dietz, the lead author of the report into the financial implications of climate change, told The Guardian.
Using a variety of models and based on pre-existing estimates of global GDP growth under various climate conditions and assumed weather-related consequences, the economists sought to estimate the "value at risk" around the world as a result of climate change.
The Week
Escape your echo chamber. Get the facts behind the news, plus analysis from multiple perspectives.
Sign up for The Week's Free Newsletters
From our morning news briefing to a weekly Good News Newsletter, get the best of The Week delivered directly to your inbox.
From our morning news briefing to a weekly Good News Newsletter, get the best of The Week delivered directly to your inbox.
"The study did not try to identify which sectors were most at risk," reports Reuters. Rather, it sought to estimate the potential value that could be wiped out due to the damage that climate change can wreak, "from the destruction of buildings, bridges or roads by storms or floods, to losses of agricultural productivity and enforced movement of populations".
In its core scenario, the paper states that if climate change is left unchecked and temperatures rise by 2.5C by the end of the century, then $2.5tn (£1.8tn) of value could be lost. If the world instead adheres to the terms of the deal struck in Paris at the end of last year to keep temperature rises below two degrees, this hit would be reduced by $800bn (£565bn).
At the most extreme end of the risk spectrum is a one per cent chance that losses would be as much as $24tn (£17tn) if climate change is not tackled, falling to $13tn (£12tn) under the two degree model.
The findings show that investors should be pushing for more action to limit carbon emissions and that long-term investors like pension funds in particular should be "getting on top of this issue", said Dietz.
A free daily email with the biggest news stories of the day – and the best features from TheWeek.com
He added that under any scenario, climate change will wipe value from global assets. The $5tn (£3.5tn) aggregate value of fossil fuel companies is under threat in particular, as the terms of the Paris deal imply much of the current reserves of oil and gas are left untouched.
"There is no scenario in which the risk to financial assets are unaffected by climate change. That is just a fiction," warned Dietz. "There will be winners and losers."