China facing ‘unstoppable’ population decline
State-sponsored think tank warns ageing society could be catastrophic for global economy
China is facing an “unstoppable” population decline over the coming decades that could have disastrous consequences for the global economy, a leading state-sponsored think tank has warned.
A report from the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences suggests the decline in fertility rates could lead to a decrease in overall population to 1990s-era levels of around 1.172 billion, down from just under 1.4 billion today.
It is just three years since China officially ended its decades-long one-child policy, yet the move has failed to produce a spike in birth rates and the report now warns “the era of negative population growth is almost here”.
Subscribe to The Week
Escape your echo chamber. Get the facts behind the news, plus analysis from multiple perspectives.
Sign up for The Week's Free Newsletters
From our morning news briefing to a weekly Good News Newsletter, get the best of The Week delivered directly to your inbox.
From our morning news briefing to a weekly Good News Newsletter, get the best of The Week delivered directly to your inbox.
As the country’s working-age population has stagnated, its dependency ratio, the number of working people in relation to non-working has grown.
According to the BBC, previous forecasts suggested China’s elderly population could hit 400 million by 2035, up from 240 million in 2017.
This will put enormous pressure on public finances and the social welfare system in China.
“Most Chinese are covered by state pension schemes. Now that fewer people are working, their contributions may no longer cover the benefits paid out to retirees, forcing the government to spend tens of billion dollars a year to cover the shortfall,” says Inkstone News.
Coupled with an ageing population, long-term population decline “is bound to bring very negative social and economic consequences”, the report says.
A large, young labour force has been key to China’s rapid economic growth over the past four decades, during which the country’s GDP grew an average of about 9.5%.
Now thanks to a shrinking labour force and rising wages, businesses are moving their factories elsewhere.
Inkstone News says “local companies will also have a hard time securing investment – fewer young people are working and saving money, while more elderly are taking money out of the capital market to spend on their retirement”.
The result is that China’s economic growth rate is expected to drop to 2% by 2050, research by the EU-China Social Protection Reform Project.
It could also have wider implications for the world economy.
CNN says that “as China's working age population shrinks so too will domestic consumption, which could have unintended consequences for the global economy, which has relied on China as a growth engine”.
The UN still expects the world population to continue to rise, albeit at a slowing rate, hitting 11.2 billion by the end of the century.
It also predicts India will overtake China as the world’s most populous country by 2024.
Sign up for Today's Best Articles in your inbox
A free daily email with the biggest news stories of the day – and the best features from TheWeek.com
-
Outer Hebrides: a top travel destination
The Week Recommends Discover 'unspoiled beauty' of the Western Isles
By Tess Foley-Cox Published
-
The Biltmore Mayfair review: a quintessential slice of luxury London
The Week Recommends This swanky retreat in Grosvenor Square blends old-world glamour with modern comforts
By Caroline Dolby Published
-
Is ChatGPT's new search engine OpenAI's Google 'killer'?
Talking Point There's a new AI-backed search engine in town. But can it stand up to Google's decades-long hold on internet searches?
By Theara Coleman, The Week US Published
-
Has the Taliban banned women from speaking?
Today's Big Question 'Rambling' message about 'bizarre' restriction joins series of recent decrees that amount to silencing of Afghanistan's women
By Harriet Marsden, The Week UK Published
-
Cuba's energy crisis
The Explainer Already beset by a host of issues, the island nation is struggling with nationwide blackouts
By Rebekah Evans, The Week UK Published
-
Putin's fixation with shamans
Under the Radar Secretive Russian leader, said to be fascinated with occult and pagan rituals, allegedly asked for blessing over nuclear weapons
By Harriet Marsden, The Week UK Published
-
Chimpanzees are dying of human diseases
Under the radar Great apes are vulnerable to human pathogens thanks to genetic similarity, increased contact and no immunity
By Harriet Marsden, The Week UK Published
-
Deaths of Jesse Baird and Luke Davies hang over Sydney's Mardi Gras
The Explainer Police officer, the former partner of TV presenter victim, charged with two counts of murder after turning himself in
By Austin Chen, The Week UK Published
-
Quiz of The Week: 24 February - 1 March
Puzzles and Quizzes Have you been paying attention to The Week's news?
By Sorcha Bradley, The Week UK Published
-
Will mounting discontent affect Iran election?
Today's Big Question Low turnout is expected in poll seen as crucial test for Tehran's leadership
By Sorcha Bradley, The Week UK Published
-
Sweden clears final NATO hurdle with Hungary vote
Speed Read Hungary's parliament overwhelmingly approved Sweden's accession to NATO
By Peter Weber, The Week US Published