Putin’s threat to fracture Ukraine

What happened

Fears that Russia was building a pretext for an invasion of eastern Ukraine grew this week, as pro-Russian demonstrators occupied government buildings in defiance of Ukraine’s interim government. Armed with stun grenades and weapons, the pro-Kremlin protesters seized control in the three eastern cities of Kharkiv, Donetsk, and Luhansk, declaring the formations of “People’s Republics” and demanding a referendum on independence. Ukraine’s acting President Oleksandr Turchynov ordered government forces to retake Kharkiv, and said similar “anti-terrorist” operations would occur in the other cities if demonstrators didn’t negotiate. Turchynov accused Russia of launching a “special operation against Ukraine” akin to the invasion of Crimea in March, and warned that the 40,000 Russian troops massed just over the border may invade the eastern territories before the May 25 presidential election. “The enemies are trying to restage the Crimean scenario,” said Turchynov, “but we will prevent it.”

Moscow said that Kiev’s use of force could plunge the country into civil war, and made clear its demands: Ukraine should postpone its upcoming election, and divide the country into autonomous federalized regions. U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry blasted Russia’s “efforts” to destabilize the sovereign state of Ukraine, calling them “as ham-handed as they are transparent.” Kerry is scheduled to meet with Russian, Ukrainian, and EU officials next week.

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What the editorials said

“Vladimir Putin is back on the offensive against Ukraine,” said The Wall Street Journal. Last month, the Russian president planted agitators in Crimea, stirring up trouble to justify Russia’s eventual invasion and annexation of the peninsula. He hasn’t been “any more subtle in eastern Ukraine,” where Russian special agents roam freely, fomenting the unrest. Now that Putin’s rubber-stamp parliament has authorized the use of “Russian forces anywhere in Ukraine to protect Russian speakers,” the U.S. and its allies need to ratchet up the pressure. The sanctions imposed thus far clearly are no deterrent.

“The Russian president’s objective is all too clear,” said the -Financial Times. He wants to block the democratic elections that would strengthen Ukraine as a westward-looking democracy, and fracture the country into republics he can control or intimidate. The U.S. and European Union must impose a new wave of much-tougher sanctions if Putin escalates, targeting Russia’s energy, banking, and mining sectors. “The Russian leader should know that intervention of any sort would lead to deep economic penalties, and a long-term rupture with the West.”

What the columnists said

“Eastern Ukraine is not like Crimea,” said Simon Shuster in Time.com. It’s far bigger, far less ethnically Russian, and far more economically and strategically important. And this time, Ukraine is ready to defend itself, meaning that Russian intervention could lead to “full-scale war.” But if the risks are greater for Russia, then “so are the potential gains.” Conquest would bring with it eastern Ukraine’s vast reserves of natural resources and cripple Kiev’s new pro-Western government—“whose downfall Russia sees as a valuable end in itself.”

Sanctions won’t deter Putin, said Angus Roxburgh in NewRepublic.com. In fact, they “have produced the kind of atmosphere that dictators love”: a widespread belief among Russians that they are being bullied and persecuted by the West. Since Putin annexed Crimea, Russian nationalism and his popularity is soaring; Duma member Alexey Pushkov told me his country “is overcoming the inferiority complex that was forced on us for years.” Clearly, the proposed “carve-up of Ukraine” is not motivated by a desire to protect Russian speakers there, said David Frum in TheAtlantic.com. “Putin cares very little about the health and welfare of Russian speakers inside Russia, where the life expectancy of a 15-year-old boy is three years lower than that of a 15-year-old boy in Haiti.”

The former KGB agent is motivated by wounded pride, said Howard LaFranchi in CSMonitor.com. Seething from President Obama’s description of Russia as “a regional power,” he wants to prove that Russia is a country to “be reckoned with.” With the world now focused on Moscow’s every move and military deployment, “Putin, to a certain degree, has already got what he wanted.”