The biggest story you're not paying attention to
The Cold War isn't over
Some events change the world overnight. Others take years to gestate, and even longer to show signs of influence. They often escape our notice entirely.
Something very important just happened in Eurasia, and the U.S.-Russian relationship will be forever changed because of it.
Since 1991, when the Soviet Union formally dissolved, Ukraine, the giant squirrel-shaped country to the east of Russia, has been flirting with a turn to the West. And for two decades, the European Union has been quite welcoming. Ukraine hasn't had it easy. The transition to a market economy was hard. Russia's unhappiness with the independence of its neighbor made itself known in the form of assassination attempts, poisonings, cyber warfare, and even, a few years ago, a shutting off of gas. What does Russia want? Very simple: They don't want Ukraine to join the West.
Subscribe to The Week
Escape your echo chamber. Get the facts behind the news, plus analysis from multiple perspectives.
Sign up for The Week's Free Newsletters
From our morning news briefing to a weekly Good News Newsletter, get the best of The Week delivered directly to your inbox.
From our morning news briefing to a weekly Good News Newsletter, get the best of The Week delivered directly to your inbox.
They don't want the Ukraine to westernize their economy and political system. They don't want their breadbasket to wind up with the Main Enemy's friends in Europe. This is indeed the silent Cold War after the Cold War.
John Schindler, a military historian, put it succinctly on Twitter: "Since 1991, Ukraine's ultimate political destination — East or West — has been contested and up for grabs. It's over. Now we know."
And Ukraine was THIS CLOSE. The parliament was on the verge of agreeing to the reforms insisted on by the EU. A signing ceremony was scheduled for Vilnius next week. President Victor Yanukovich had decreed that the turn west was the logical course for the country to take. And then he changed his mind. Trade deal with Europe was kiboshed.
And he ordered his advisers to re-open talks with Moscow. His public explanation for the volte-face is probably an iceberg tip: He worries about losing Russia as a trading partner. More likely, he worries about turning Russia into an enemy, awakening the sleeping bear. Russia's first retaliatory step would have been to cut off energy supplies once again, which, in the short term, would wreak havoc on Ukraine's already fragile economy. (EU promises to make up for whatever Russia cut off fell on deaf appears, apparently).
Sign up for Today's Best Articles in your inbox
A free daily email with the biggest news stories of the day – and the best features from TheWeek.com
What happens now?
Nothing. Russia browbeats the Ukraine into submission. The Eastern Partnership, the EU's name for its outreach to former Soviet states, is effectively dissolved. Ukraine's decision to remain in Russia's orbit will change the center of gravity when the geopolitical and resource wars of the 21st century heat up, as they are certain to do.
Create an account with the same email registered to your subscription to unlock access.
Marc Ambinder is TheWeek.com's editor-at-large. He is the author, with D.B. Grady, of The Command and Deep State: Inside the Government Secrecy Industry. Marc is also a contributing editor for The Atlantic and GQ. Formerly, he served as White House correspondent for National Journal, chief political consultant for CBS News, and politics editor at The Atlantic. Marc is a 2001 graduate of Harvard. He is married to Michael Park, a corporate strategy consultant, and lives in Los Angeles.
-
'Make legal immigration a more plausible option'
Instant Opinion Opinion, comment and editorials of the day
By Harold Maass, The Week US Published
-
LA-to-Las Vegas high-speed rail line breaks ground
Speed Read The railway will be ready as soon as 2028
By Peter Weber, The Week US Published
-
Israel's military intelligence chief resigns
Speed Read Maj. Gen. Aharon Haliva is the first leader to quit for failing to prevent the Hamas attack in October
By Justin Klawans, The Week US Published
-
Why Puerto Rico is starving
The Explainer Thanks to poor policy design, congressional dithering, and a hostile White House, hundreds of thousands of the most vulnerable Puerto Ricans are about to go hungry
By Jeff Spross Published
-
China is now just another autocracy
The Explainer On the long-lasting consequences of Xi Jinping's power grab
By Noah Millman Published
-
Is America the main obstacle to peace in Korea?
The Explainer There's only one way Korea would unify — and the United States won't stand for it
By Noah Millman Published
-
Why on Earth does the Olympics still refer to hundreds of athletes as 'ladies'?
The Explainer Stop it. Just stop.
By Jeva Lange Last updated
-
Berlin's wall and ours
The Explainer What that signifier of the Cold War indicates about our unsettled historical moment
By Noah Millman Published
-
The catastrophe in Yemen
The Explainer A Saudi Arabian blockade has left millions of civilians starving, and without fuel or clean water. What is this conflict about?
By The Week Staff Published
-
China's strongman
The Explainer Xi Jinping is China's most powerful leader in decades. What are his plans for the country — and the world?
By The Week Staff Published
-
How to ride out the apocalypse in a big city
The Explainer So you live in a city and don't want to die a fiery death ...
By Eugene K. Chow Published