Is Obama's electoral firewall crumbling?
President Obama's small but consistent leads in key swing states have long been viewed as his key to victory — even if Romney narrowly wins the popular vote

Statisticians have said for weeks that President Obama is the overwhelming favorite to win Tuesday's election, even though polls say he's in a dead heat with Mitt Romney nationally. The reason: Obama has narrow but significant leads in most of the swing states that will likely cast the deciding votes in the Electoral College. But now, some analysts are moving all-powerful Ohio, which has steadily leaned Obama, into the "toss up" column, saying the race there has tightened. Republicans have accused statisticians of pro-Obama bias, and Romney political director Rich Beeson says all signs indicate that Obama's electoral firewall "is burning." Predictably, Team Obama disagrees, insisting it's clearly holding. Are Republicans fooling themselves, or is Obama's swing-state firewall really breaking apart?
The firewall is crumbling: Obama's famous get-out-the-vote machine was a key building block in his "impregnable firewall," says Jim Geraghty at National Review. The idea was that Obama would build up such an advantage in early voting that Romney wouldn't be able to catch up on election day. Early voting figures, however, suggest that Obama's ground game isn't expanding his share of the vote in crucial states such as Ohio, and he's behind his 2008 pace in Virginia, too. Ouch.
"Tough news for Obama in early voting figures"
Subscribe to The Week
Escape your echo chamber. Get the facts behind the news, plus analysis from multiple perspectives.

Sign up for The Week's Free Newsletters
From our morning news briefing to a weekly Good News Newsletter, get the best of The Week delivered directly to your inbox.
From our morning news briefing to a weekly Good News Newsletter, get the best of The Week delivered directly to your inbox.
The wall was shaky, but not anymore: Obama had some terrible days in early October, says Nate Silver at The New York Times. It looked like his firewall wasn't "all that it was cracked up to be." Romney's momentum has since faded, though, and Obama has "rebounded slightly." He's on firmer footing nationally, and still has "the lead in the vast majority of polls in Iowa, Nevada, Ohio, and Wisconsin," the states on his "path of least resistance toward winning the Electoral College."
"Oct. 31: Obama's Electoral College 'firewall' holding in polls"
The question is, which polls are right? Going into the last five days of the campaign, the polls are all over the map, says Mark Blumenthal at The Huffington Post. There have been 11 recent polls in Ohio, for example, and they suggest Obama's lead there is anywhere from one to five percentage points. There are similar gaps in other swing states. If Obama's margins are overstated by just a couple of points, the firewall goes poof. That's unlikely, but "within the realm of possibility." So the question is, how accurate are the polls?
"Could presidential polls be wrong about Obama's battleground edge?
Read more political coverage at The Week's 2012 Election Center.
Sign up for Today's Best Articles in your inbox
A free daily email with the biggest news stories of the day – and the best features from TheWeek.com
-
Scientists want to fight malaria by poisoning mosquitoes with human blood
Under the radar Drugging the bugs
By Devika Rao, The Week US Published
-
Crossword: March 31, 2025
The Week's daily crossword
By The Week Staff Published
-
Sudoku medium: March 31, 2025
The Week's daily medium sudoku puzzle
By The Week Staff Published
-
The JFK files: the truth at last?
In The Spotlight More than 64,000 previously classified documents relating the 1963 assassination of John F. Kennedy have been released by the Trump administration
By The Week Staff Published
-
'Seriously, not literally': how should the world take Donald Trump?
Today's big question White House rhetoric and reality look likely to become increasingly blurred
By Sorcha Bradley, The Week UK Published
-
Will Trump's 'madman' strategy pay off?
Today's Big Question Incoming US president likes to seem unpredictable but, this time round, world leaders could be wise to his playbook
By Sorcha Bradley, The Week UK Published
-
Democrats vs. Republicans: who are the billionaires backing?
The Explainer Younger tech titans join 'boys' club throwing money and support' behind President Trump, while older plutocrats quietly rebuke new administration
By Harriet Marsden, The Week UK Published
-
US election: where things stand with one week to go
The Explainer Harris' lead in the polls has been narrowing in Trump's favour, but her campaign remains 'cautiously optimistic'
By Harriet Marsden, The Week UK Published
-
Is Trump okay?
Today's Big Question Former president's mental fitness and alleged cognitive decline firmly back in the spotlight after 'bizarre' town hall event
By Harriet Marsden, The Week UK Published
-
The life and times of Kamala Harris
The Explainer The vice-president is narrowly leading the race to become the next US president. How did she get to where she is now?
By The Week UK Published
-
Will 'weirdly civil' VP debate move dial in US election?
Today's Big Question 'Diametrically opposed' candidates showed 'a lot of commonality' on some issues, but offered competing visions for America's future and democracy
By Harriet Marsden, The Week UK Published