What the experts say

last updated 8 January 2015

How to predict housing

After dropping to “pre-2003 levels” in many places, the housing market has finally begun to show some signs of improvement, said AnnaMaria Andriotis in SmartMoney. Low mortgage rates and the federal government’s tax credit for first-time homebuyers have helped to prop up the national market. In fact, home prices in 17 of the 20 local markets tracked by the Standard & Poor’s/Case-Shiller Home Price indexes actually saw prices increase from July to August. To tell where your own local market is headed, pay close attention to the number of foreclosures in your area. (You can get a sense at RealtyTrac.com.) A high foreclosure rate is almost certain to push down home prices in the area, while “the faster foreclosed homes are sold, the sooner home prices can stabilize.” Other important statistics to look at are an area’s income trends and its unemployment rate. (You can find these at the Bureau of Labor Statistics website, Bls.gov.) The unemployment rate, in particular, is a key indicator of future demand, since “without a job, you can’t buy a home.”

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Exchange-traded funds have become so popular among investors that they’re starting to show up in the holdings of 529 college-savings plans, said Jane Hodges in The Wall Street Journal. That may be dangerous. ETFs “resemble mutual funds but trade like stocks,” and thus give investors more control: They can zero in on certain asset classes while keeping expenses low. But those benefits are more or less wasted in a 529 plan, “where trading is restricted and income is sheltered from federal tax as long as it is used for qualifying education expenses.” And, because most 529 plans that offer ETFs are sold via financial advisors, any money that parents save on expenses may be gobbled up by advisor fees.

Before the recession, “there seemed to be no limit to what customers would pay” for the latest cut, wash, or label of designer jeans, said Eric Wilson in The New York Times. But the “denim bubble has burst.” The tipping point seemed to come when the price of popular “premium” labels squeezed past the $300 mark—or more than the price of an iPod. “The sweet spot for designer jeans has relocated to a neighborhood just below $200.” Still, sales of women’s jeans recently were up 5 percent from last year, and “despite all this tumult, designer denim is still one of the few bright spots of the apparel industry.”