Global warming: Has it stopped?

Believe it or not, said Michael Reilly in MSNBC.com, global warming may have come to a mysterious halt. Environmentalists have long believed that as humans continue pumping huge amounts of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases into the atmosphere, the Earth will inevitably get hotter—with potentially devastating results. But some unknown natural process may have stopped the warming trend seen since the 1970s, says a new University of Wisconsin study. Global temperatures, the research indicates, have actually “flat-lined since 2001.” Climate models predicted a 0.36 degree Fahrenheit increase over that time, because greenhouse-gas emissions—and concentrations in the atmosphere—continued to rise. The University of Wisconsin scientists theorize that an increase in tropical cloud cover could be reflecting sunlight back into space, or that unusually strong ocean currents are sucking heat down into the depths. But they admit they’re puzzled by the lack of a “firm cause” for global warming’s stopping dead in its tracks.

So where are the front-page headlines? asked Jeff Jacoby in The Boston Globe. For years, “global-warming alarmists” such as Al Gore have touted every story detailing shrinking Arctic ice or warmer seasons as proof that the planet will soon be an unbearable hothouse. The Wisconsin report doesn’t debunk this hysteria, but it does suggest that science still doesn’t “fully understand the immense complexity of the Earth’s ever-changing climate.” In fact, 2008 was the coolest year of the past decade, with snow falling on New Orleans and Las Vegas, and a cold wave paralyzing Europe. Mention any of this to Gore and his acolytes, though, and they react with the furious “and closed-minded dogmatism of a religious zealot.”

Speaking of zealotry, said Jeremy Jacquot in Huffingtonpost.com, I notice you left out the conclusion of the Wisconsin study. Kyle Swanson and his co-author, Anastasios Tsonis, do not belong to that shrinking club of global-warming deniers. They fully accept evidence that greenhouse gases have already warmed the planet; their study concludes only that some natural cycle is now holding that warming in check. When that cycle ends in a few decades, Swanson says, “bang—the warming will return,” and when that happens, he warns, the temperature increase may be “explosive”—far greater than current climate models predict. So here’s the good news: Global warming may be on hold. And here’s the bad: Not for long.

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