Zimbabwe: Preparing for a post-Mugabe future

“This is a great victory for the people of Zimbabwe,” said the Zimbabwe Independent in an editorial. “A dark cloud has been lifted from the land.” Everyone thought that President Robert Mugabe, who has ruled the country since independence in 1980, was invincible. Yet he has conceded that he did not win re-election outright last week, and has agreed to stand in a runoff against challenger Morgan Tsvangirai. It is just a chink in Mugabe’s armor—but for someone who has held on to power only “by coercion and electoral manipulation,” any sign of weakness can prove fatal. Mugabe is sure to lose the runoff. He was unable to manipulate the first-round vote because too many people rose up in rejection of his disastrous economic policies, which have ruined this once-prosperous land. In the past, the people believed him when he claimed that our country was a victim of “bullying Western powers.” Now, though, the people “regard the international community as partners and see its own rulers as political thugs abusing state resources.”

Don’t celebrate just yet, said Dumisani Muyela in South Africa’s Business Day. Mugabe won’t give up without an ugly, dirty fight. His Zanu (PF) party, which ran the country for decades, lost control of the parliament in the recent elections, and its members fear retribution if they lose control of the presidency, too. At a Zanu politburo meeting to plan the runoff campaign, witnesses reported “fascist utterances and belligerent rhetoric.” Elections in Zimbabwe under Mugabe “have a history of violence, intimidation, and ballot fraud.” The first round of the presidential election was a rare and surprising exception, but the second round will likely revert to form.

Even if Mugabe does steal the election, said Donald Mogeni in Kenya’s Nation, the world should still start preparing for “a post-Mugabe Zimbabwe.” Whether the transition occurs with this election or upon the death of the 84-year-old leader, it will happen—and there’s a big cleanup job ahead. Zimbabwe has become “an international pariah,” having quit the British Commonwealth and been listed by the U.S. as an “outpost of tyranny” akin to Myanmar or North Korea. At the moment of Mugabe’s departure, there will be “a brief, golden hour” when the international community can offer incentives to bring Zimbabwe back into the fold of nations. The Zimbabwean people have suffered “war-like trauma.” They deserve our help.

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It’s going to be a tough haul, said Tafadzwa Musekiwa in SWRadioAfrica

.com. Zimbabweans have turned out in vast numbers to support opposition candidate Tsvangirai and his party, the Movement for Democratic Change. But what happens once our wish is fulfilled? Many seem to be expecting an instant transformation, in which “suddenly there is food on their tables; there is foreign investment and jobs are there for everyone; repair of infrastructure goes underway; the army, police, and the judiciary become professional; and Zimbabwe reverts back to the pre-1997 era or even better.” Managing the people’s unrealistic expectations will be a monumental task. It will be even harder, and take even longer, to repair “the damaged and wounded nation.”