Russia: How much power will Putin yield?

Western media should start printing their retractions, said Vyacheslav Nikonov in the Moscow Izvestiya. For months, American and European newspapers have been “portraying Russia in dark colors as an increasingly bloody dictatorship.” Under President Vladimir Putin, the conventional wisdom goes, Russia is in the hands of “the sinister KGB” and follows “an insidiously anti-Western policy.” But that story line is contradicted by the nomination of Dmitri Medvedev as president. Medvedev, 42, is the head of the gas company Gazprom and a longtime Putin aide with a firm “reputation as a liberal.” He has no connection whatsoever with any security or intelligence service, and he is popular in Western circles. If Medvedev is elected president next spring, he plans to make Putin his prime minister. That’s a wise move: It gives Russia both continuity, as Putin will still be in government, and change, as Medvedev will be in charge. Thankfully, Putin this week agreed to accept the premiership.

This “change” is a charade, said Andrey Kolesnikov in the Moscow Gazeta.ru. Medvedev is simply a frontman for Putin. In fact, Putin groomed him for years to be the Kremlin’s “unthreatening face.” That’s why Medvedev was dispatched to the World Economic Forum at Davos, Switzerland, this past year. He fulfilled his mission perfectly, wowing the international audience with his “freedom-loving speech” criticizing authoritarian tendencies in Russia. It was all an act. “Medvedev is more of the shop window than the contents of the store. The billboard, not the product.”

Clearly, Putin has figured out a shrewd way to hold on to his power, said Andrei Lipsky in the Moscow Novaya Gazeta. Nearly all scenarios end up with Putin in charge. As prime minister under Medvedev, Putin wouldn’t even have to change the constitution to be the real power. After all, much of the power Putin wielded as president was dependent on the complicity of the prime minister in the first place. “A strong prime minister, who doesn’t cower like a naughty schoolboy before a teacher-president, would be capable of a great deal.” The prime minister, for example, is supposed to appoint the security ministers and control the economy. While Putin was president, those powers were ceded to him, but you can bet he’ll take them as his due when he is premier. And, of course, there’s always the possibility that Medvedev will resign on “some pretext” early in his first year. Putin could then take his place as president for the rest of the term, and then run for another term after that.

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Those who fear we’re stuck with authoritarian rule for at least another decade are probably right, said Pavel Voshchanov, also in Novaya Gazeta. But it’s still too early to say whether Putin will be the strongman. It’s not completely out of the question that he would use the premiership as a way to transition himself out of leadership, thus securing his legacy as a man of the people. The fact is, none of the pundits—Russian or Western—can possibly know what will happen. In Russia, remember, “all political decisions are made by a very small group of people, linked by the bonds of friendship and shared backgrounds.” The rest of us have only the freedom to speculate.