What comes after the Islamists defeat?

last updated 8 January 2015

Somalia

The Islamists have been routed, said Aweys Osman Yusuf in Mogadishu’s Shabelle Media Network, but Somalia is far from calm. Ethiopian troops backing Somalia’s Transitional Federal Government easily chased the Union of Islamic Courts, or UIC, regime from Mogadishu. The Islamist leaders who brought repressive sharia law to much of Somalia are now gone; they fled across the Gulf of Aden to Yemen. But gone, too, is the reign of order they enforced. Now, once again, militias roam the capital, setting up roadblocks to extort money from car and bus passengers. Gunfire peppers the air. “People feel afraid to walk at night.”

The situation will get even worse when the Ethiopians leave, said Gregory Alonso Pirio in Ethiopia’s Reporter. Well-trained Ethiopian troops will have to withdraw soon for political reasons. Some commentators have accused Ethiopia, a mostly Christian country, of invading Somalia on religious grounds. In fact, it was merely trying to prevent Somalia from “once again becoming a jihadist threat to its security.” In the early 1990s, the Somali Islamist movement al Ittihad, backed by al Qaida, launched numerous terrorist attacks on Ethiopia. The UIC, which was being funded by Saudi Arabia, Syria, and Iran, was nothing but the latest incarnation of the same enemy. But it’s doubtful whether whatever motley African Union peacekeeping force takes the Ethiopians’ place will be able to restore order.

Tragically, Somalia remains as divided as ever, said Gambia’s Daily Observer in an editorial. The U.S.-backed warlords who lost control of the capital when the UIC was on the rise last spring are now returning “with a vengeance.” We can expect them to remain loyal to their Ethiopian patrons. “Somalia is, therefore, now split politically along pro-Ethiopian and anti-Ethiopian lines.” The best solution would be to continue the negotiations that the government and the UIC started last year in Sudan. If neighboring African and Arab countries also come together and “rally behind the Somali people at their time of need,” there may be a chance for stability.