Iraq

It's time to face an inconvenient truth, said Christopher Fettweis in the Los Angeles Times. The war in Iraq is already lost. This week, as part of the Bush administration's vaunted 'œsurge,' 10,000 U.S. troops began Operation Arrowhead Ripper, a major assault on al Qaida in Diyala province, Iraq's most violent area outside of Baghdad. But even if that operation succeeds, the long-term prospects are bleak. Support for the war at home has dwindled to almost nothing, and after some initial successes, the surge is coming undone. The monthly rate of suicide bombings has nearly doubled since January, and despite promises of new security measures, a truck bomb this week killed 60 at a Baghdad Shiite mosque. Execution-style killings, which plummeted after the surge began, have rebounded, and the last six months have been the deadliest for U.S. forces since 2003. Military and civilian experts are increasingly speaking of 'œa no-win mission,' said Tina Susman, also in the Times. 'œFor every move we make,' said Brig. Gen. Joe Ramirez Jr., 'œthe enemy makes three.'

The situation is equally grim off the battlefield, said Damien Cave in The New York Times. With only three months before progress reports are due in Washington, 'œIraq's political leaders have failed to reach agreements on nearly every law that the Americans have demanded as benchmarks,' including on distribution of oil revenue and on power sharing among Shiites, Sunnis, and Kurds. Both U.S. and Iraqi officials are now doubtful that any major legislation will pass before 2008. Doubts are also spreading about whether the benchmarks would halt the 'œcycle of violence' anyway. Even Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki seems resigned to a bloody stalemate, said Dick Polman in The Philadelphia Inquirer. 'œThere are two mentalities in this region,' al-Maliki recently remarked, 'œconspiracy and mistrust.'

There's a third mentality, too, said Frederick Kagan and William Kristol in The Weekly Standard, and it's one of hope. Most of Iraq's violence is occurring where the surge isn't taking place, which shows that concerted military action can make a difference. More important, it's increasingly clear that 'œal Qaida is steadily losing its grip in Iraq,' as more and more Iraqis are becoming disgusted with both its extremist Islamic ideology and its cruel violence. The terrorists sense this shift, which is 'œwhy they're surging against our surge, and why they are attempting to convince us that we have lost when it is they who are losing.' Besides, abandoning Iraq at this critical phase would be cataclysmic, said Ralph Peters in the New York Post. If you want to consider what would happen if we left tomorrow, 'œlook at Gaza today. Then imagine a situation a thousand times worse.'

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Not necessarily, said Steven Simon and Ray Takeyh in The Washington Post. Though short-term peace in Iraq is probably impossible, a prolonged civil war doesn't automatically mean broader disaster. The Middle East has endured many civil wars, in Algeria, Lebanon, Pakistan, and elsewhere; none has led to an all-out regional conflagration. And the 'œrough military balance between Sunnis and Shiites' reduces the likelihood of 'œnationwide genocide.'

Fred Kaplan

Slate.com