Cuba after Castro

Is Fidel near the end?

That is anybody’s guess, but rumors about his failing health have circulated for years. Castro is 77 years old, and, depending on which speculative diagnosis you prefer to believe, is suffering from everything from prostate cancer to heart problems to Parkinson’s disease. On doctors’ orders, he gave up his trademark cigars years ago. In 2001, Castro collapsed two hours into a speech under a blazing Caribbean sun, sparking a new flurry of rumors. But over the past year, the Maximum Leader has been very active—and more defiant than he has been for decades. Clearly, he does not intend to go gently into that good night.

What’s gotten into him?

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Castro has been enraged by the Bush administration’s open talk about undoing his life’s work—Cuba’s communist revolution. Bush and Secretary of State Colin Powell have expressed the hope that Cuba becomes a democratic, capitalist nation, and earlier this year, a State Department official began holding meetings in Cuba with prominent dissidents. Castro ordered 75 of them arrested, and executed three men who hijacked a boat to defect. The jailings and executions sparked strong criticism from around the world—including Castro’s European trading partners, who’ve helped Cuba recover from losing $6 billion a year in aid from the Soviet Union. Castro called Italian Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi a “clown” and Spanish Prime Minister Jose Maria Aznar “the little Führer with the mustache.” But Castro’s deepest enmity is reserved for the “lawless cowboy,” George W. Bush, who, he says, is secretly planning “where, how, and when Cuba will be attacked.”

Might that happen?

No, unless Osama bin Laden turns out to be hiding in Havana. But Bush has made it clear that he shares the goals of the anti-Castro Cuban exiles in Miami, who hope to lead a democratic uprising when Castro dies. The Cuban exiles, as it happens, are a key voting bloc in Florida, and may help Bush win the state’s electoral votes in 2004. Over the past year, the president has deliberately tightened enforcement of existing U.S. sanctions on Cuba, including the ban on Americans traveling to the island. Both the House and Senate have voted to lift the travel ban, but Bush has vowed to veto the bill.

Could Fidel’s regime collapse?

That’s unlikely. Many Cubans revere Castro, who came to power by leading a revolutionary uprising in 1959. Others fear him. His control over the country is complete. Prudently, Castro installed his brother, Raul Castro, to run Cuba’s military, to prevent a coup. Last year, Fidel responded to demands for political reform by amending Cuba’s constitution to make the communist system “untouchable.” “Only death will separate Castro from his control of the Cuban people,” Arch Kielly, a Cuban-American military veteran, said in The Dallas Morning News.

Is Cuba ready for that day?

The Cuban government says it is prepared for a peaceful transition, but no one can predict how the population will react. Until recently, Cubans avoided speaking directly of the day Castro would die; the safer euphemism was “when Fidel ceases to exist physically.” But the government now acknowledges that the day will come. After his public fainting spell in 2001, Castro apologized in advance to the Cuban people for any “passing unpleasantness” that might accompany his demise.

What is Fidel’s plan?

He wants to hand over the reins to his brother, Raul, who is 71. “Raul is very healthy,” Castro told NBC’s Nightly News. “He has the most experience. Therefore, I think he has the capacity to succeed me.” As military commander, Raul Castro has been installing loyalists, or raulistas, in positions of authority for several years. The old-timers at the top of the Communist Party have been replaced by a new generation of leaders in their 30s and 40s. “Things are well arranged,” Raul Castro says.

Will Fidel’s plan work?

If the military remains loyal to Raul, it may. Raul will probably try to keep Fidel’s death quiet for a few days, until he can move soldiers into place to prevent a violent uprising. But Cuban exiles in Miami are planning on retaking their homeland and the property Castro seized in the revolution; for years, several exile groups have been conducting military training in Florida. Unless the post-Fidel leadership quickly enacts drastic reforms giving Cubans more freedom, says Mark Falcoff in his book Cuba: The Morning After, there’s likely to be an invasion by exiles, or a popular uprising, or both. But Falcoff and other observers believe that a rapid transition to freedom and democracy is unlikely, since all of Cuba’s institutions are geared to perpetuate the current totalitarian system. Still, many suspect that Castro’s communist dictatorship cannot survive for long without Castro. “No one will be able to fill the void,” says essayist Roberto Luque Escalona, a Cuban exile. “His regime is an edifice constructed on one pillar. It cannot stand once the pillar has fallen.”

Fidel’s family ties

Cuba: The Morning After,