How disaster science explains the Oscars catastrophe

When things go terribly wrong, it's natural to look for outrageous incompetence. But as the Oscars debacle showed, banal mistakes, complacency, and denial can lead to monumental error.

The Oscars fiasco.
(Image credit: REUTERS/Lucy Nicholson)

In every disaster, there's an instant when the awful truth first presents itself to the stunned participants — a lookout spots an iceberg, or methane gas starts jetting from the top of a drilling rig. At the 89th Academy Awards, this happened on live TV, so we all got to see the precise moment Warren Beatty realized something had gone terribly wrong. His eyebrows arched upward. He frowned, hesitated.

The meltdown that followed was epic. Beatty peered into the envelope again as if to see whether a second slip of paper were lurking inside. Then he handed the befuddling card to his co-presenter, Faye Dunaway, who, unaware of the disaster still, immediately announced La La Land had won Best Picture. That film's producers were more than two minutes into their speeches before the truth came out: Beatty had been handed the wrong envelope before he took the stage. Moonlight was the real winner.

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