A scientific guesstimate of who's going to lose Too Hot to Handle based only on their social media personas

Imagine you're stranded in paradise with nine of the most conventionally attractive people in the world. The alcohol is flowing, the ocean is calling, and there is only one rule: Any time anyone gets intimate with someone else, money gets subtracted from the group's $100,000 pot by an Alexa-like robot named Lana, who aims to teach foolish, horny mortals the value of "genuine relationships" over "meaningless flings."

This is the basic premise of Netflix's newest reality TV competition, Too Hot to Handle, which will almost certainly be both excruciatingly dumb and unfairly addictive. Seeing as it follows the success of The Circle and Love Is Blind, it will also likely be all anyone is talking about this weekend; all eight episodes are now available to watch.

The big question going in, of course, is who in the group will be so thirsty that they can't keep their hands to themselves for the sake of the group's shared $100,000? Here is our spoiler-free ranking of who is most likely to break the no-touching rules and deplete the team pot, based solely on their social media personas.

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10. Harry Jowsey

Age 22. Queenstown, Australia.

His introduction on the show: "I've hit everyone famous. I've DM'ed Kourtney Kardashian, Kendall. I hit her with, 'Hello, my little butter chicken.' But my success rate with celebrities is absolutely zero."

Representative Instagram caption: "How was your day?"

Thirstiness level: 1/10

Harry seems ... really nice? Suspiciously nice. Yes, his Instagram account is mostly pictures of himself, which is always a warning sign, but they all have sweet captions like "What did you get up to this weekend?" and "Yo has anyone else been in a hot air ballon before?" It's hard to imagine him as the sort who would squander the group's money on fleeting physical gratifications, especially when he seems so very interested in finding out, no really, how are you?

9. Nicole O'Brien

Age ?? County Cork, Ireland.

Her introduction on the show: "I just get with anyone and no one ever knows."

Representative Instagram caption: "If you obey the rules, you miss all the fun."

Thirstiness level: 2/10

Compared with the rest of the contestants on Too Hot to Handle, Nicole seems practically wholesome. (She might also be the only one who has actually posted a picture of herself in long sleeves). The Irish commerce major seems to have actual normal-person hobbies, too, like going to baseball games, movies, and Ibiza. She's the type of person who always puts her girlfriends first — and as a result, it would be my guess that she'll also be the sort to demonstrate some restraint in the villa, for the good of the group.

8. Kelechi 'Kelz' Dyke

Age ?? London, U.K.

His introduction on the show: "I've got a lion tattoo here. It's basically how I see myself. Lion King was always my favorite movie."

Representative Instagram caption: "My life's too Real to be Fake."

Thirstiness level: 2/10

Kelz definitely does the "posing with attractive women" thing on Instagram, but you're far more likely to find him posting pictures with his friends (and celebrities). Perhaps most tellingly, though, he wrote on one photo last year that "Me and my Boy, we would split a Mil," so I don't think he'd be the sort to betray his peers by taking his eyes off the $100,000 prize.

7. Haley Cureton

Age 22. Florida.

Her introduction on the show: "I do mostly go for guys but if a girl looks just like me, I'm so into that."

Representative Instagram caption: "Kiss us we're L E G A L."

Thirstiness level: 4/10

Haley only has 19 photos on Instagram, which suggests she lives for the moment and not for hungry comments from creepy internet guys. On the other hand, 10 of those photos are of her in a swimsuit. On the other other hand, she's 22 and lives in Florida, so that seems totally normal and not proof she's going to be the one getting overly handsy and burning through everybody's cash. Right? …Right?

6. David Birtwistle

Age 26. London, U.K.

His introduction on the show: "Basically I just walk into a bar and take my shirt off. Sorted."

Representative Instagram caption: "If I was born where you were born and I was taught what you were taught, then I would believe as you believe. When we know this, we don't judge, we accept. We don't fight, we love. We are not closed, we are open. Now that's enough philosophy, it's time to go tear up the Sahara in a dune buggy. From deep thinking to child like excitement in seconds."

Thirstiness level: 5/10

David is really, really obsessed with taking his shirt off. He's a personal trainer, and much of his Instagram is dedicated to fitness and exercise, but it also makes you wonder how he'll do on a show where not taking your shirt off minimizes your chances of losing money. "When I was younger and took my shirt off people would tell me to put it on," he writes in one caption, but really, we get it, you have a six pack. Now put your clothes back on.

5. Chloe Veitch

Age 20. Essex, U.K.

Her introduction on the show: "I'm quite ditsy so you've got to be really patient with me. I'm not the brightest spark in the … um, book."

Representative Instagram caption: "When I started flirting with the hustle, failure became my ex. Now engaged to the game and married to success — you can't have a millionaire goal with a 9-5 work ethic."

Thirstiness level: 6/10

Chloe seems to spend most of her time lying around in her underwear, or otherwise finding an excuse not to wear a shirt. Which honestly has been how I've spent the past five weeks of quarantine myself, so no judgment here! It's Chloe's captions, though, that make you wonder if she'll be able to abstain from romance: "Wanna self isolate with me?" she teases in one. A 6 out of 10 might even be a touch conservative here, seeing as one of her most recent posts adds "don't miss [Too Hot to Handle] if you want to see who could cope with the no touch rule." Chloe, is that a spoiler?

4. Francesca Farago

Age 26. British Columbia, Canada.

Her introduction on the show: "I think my personality's my best asset, but the eyes go to the boobs. But, like, my face isn't too bad, I don't think, so."

Representative Instagram caption: "Told myself I was going to keep my IG classy in 2019 ... guess 2020 will be my year."

Thirstiness level: 6/10

As an Instagram influencer — Francesca has over 337,000 followers — this Canadian likes to be the center of attention, which doesn't bode well for the group's $100,000 pot. Still, she's not so vain as to be above giving herself a bad boxed hair dye during quarantine, as evidenced by her Instagram Stories this week. Francesca also uses her powers for good, not evil, telling her fans to "stay home" after getting their attention with a topless photo. Plus, sorry guys, but she already has a Romeo: her Pomeranian.

3. Rhonda Paul

Age 26. Georgia.

Her introduction on the show: "I would rate myself a 10/10. I got a nice butt."

Representative Instagram caption: "I love who I'm becoming. Get with it or get lost."

Thirstiness level: 8/10

Rhonda has a goofy side according to her Instagram, but don't put her in the category of the girl next door. Her fellow contestants aren't going to want to leave her unobserved, seeing as she writes captions like "I get what I want" and "I do it for 'me' not 'you,'" which doesn't quite instill confidence in her putting aside her own impulses for the good of the group. Plus her photo above has the location set to "your boyfriend's place," so, uh, watch out!

2. Sharron Townsend

Age 24. New Jersey.

His introduction on the show: "What I'm most proud of is my penis. I have this picture, and it's measured next to an air freshener can."

Representative Instagram caption: "Tell @realchristianmingle that I'm ready."

Thirstiness level: 8/10

Sharron is the sort of guy who posts a shirtless photo of himself with the caption, "Christmas came early!" He tags his nudes #YoungWildAndFree and #ThirstTrap, but if you still aren't convinced he loves the limelight, note that he's already starred on another trashy dating show, MTV's Undressed. He's not shy around the ladies, either. How will he keep his hands to himself when he can barely keep his hands off himself?

1. Matthew Smith

Age 29. Colorado.

His introduction on the show: "I'm a deep thinker. I think about everything a lot. Monogamy is something that I sometimes question. I've often joked about spreading my seed and rolling the dice of my generic build with different women and races around the world."

Representative Instagram caption: "I'd invite you inside my mind, if I felt you could survive it."

Thirstiness level: 10/10

There is a less than zero percent chance that Matthew makes it to the end of the show without spending all of the group's allotted $100,000. The majority of his photos on Instagram look like he just poured a bucket of water over his head. He rarely wears a shirt, even when it's his mom taking the picture. He brags about how he was once "hired as the dude who got paid to hang out with, and drive around, the international female models during their stay in L.A." And you know what, he's gonna have a great time at the villa, and I'm happy for him. Just don't spend everyone's money in one place, Matthew.

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