A new study suggests Trump's 2016 victory may have been a 'historical inevitability'
A new study combining historical data on demography and ideology in 21 Western democracies implies that the rise of right-wing populists like former President Donald Trump and events like Brexit "were not an abrupt departure from precedent, but rather the consequence of a 60-year-old international trend," The Economist writes. In other words, the paper, co-authored by Thomas Piketty, Amory Gethin, and Clara Martinez-Toledano, makes Trump's 2016 election victory "look like a historical inevitability."
The main finding of the paper — which like any academic study has its critics — is that "income and education began diverging as predictors of ideology" decades ago. Back in 1955, for example, "both the richest and the most educated voters tended to support conservative parties," while "poorer and less-educated people mostly chose labor or social-democratic" parties. But over time, and with "striking" consistency, the most highly-educated voters moved toward the left-wing parties, while those with less schooling "slid the other way." The wealthiest voters maintained their support of conservative parties, giving the right a "coalition" of the rich and those with less education, paving the way for politics as you know them today.
The shift appears to be global, Michigan State University's Matt Grossman noted on Twitter, but the United States "stands out as moving from almost no left/right division on education and a large division on income in 1970 to a large division on education and almost no division on income by 2010."
Subscribe to The Week
Escape your echo chamber. Get the facts behind the news, plus analysis from multiple perspectives.
Sign up for The Week's Free Newsletters
From our morning news briefing to a weekly Good News Newsletter, get the best of The Week delivered directly to your inbox.
From our morning news briefing to a weekly Good News Newsletter, get the best of The Week delivered directly to your inbox.
Create an account with the same email registered to your subscription to unlock access.
Sign up for Today's Best Articles in your inbox
A free daily email with the biggest news stories of the day – and the best features from TheWeek.com
Tim is a staff writer at The Week and has contributed to Bedford and Bowery and The New York Transatlantic. He is a graduate of Occidental College and NYU's journalism school. Tim enjoys writing about baseball, Europe, and extinct megafauna. He lives in New York City.
-
'The House under GOP rule has become a hostile workplace'
Instant Opinion Opinion, comment and editorials of the day
By Harold Maass, The Week US Published
-
The Shohei Ohtani gambling scandal is about more than bad bets
In The Spotlight The firestorm surrounding one of baseball's biggest stars threatens to upend a generational legacy and professional sports at large
By Rafi Schwartz, The Week US Published
-
Feds raid Diddy homes in alleged sex trafficking case
Speed Read Homeland Security raided the properties of hip hop mogul Sean "Diddy" Combs
By Peter Weber, The Week US Published
-
'The House under GOP rule has become a hostile workplace'
Instant Opinion Opinion, comment and editorials of the day
By Harold Maass, The Week US Published
-
Trump gets $289M break, first criminal trial date
Speed Read The former president's fraud bond has been reduced to $175 million from $464 million
By Peter Weber, The Week US Published
-
US-Israel rift widens after UN cease-fire resolution
Speed Read The U.S. declined to veto a U.N. resolution calling for a two-week "immediate cease-fire" in Gaza
By Peter Weber, The Week US Published
-
New Jersey first lady exits race to replace Menendez
Speed Read Tammy Murphy dropping out paves the way for Rep. Andy Kim to become the state's next senator
By Peter Weber, The Week US Published
-
Russia blames Ukraine for deadly ISIS Moscow attack
Speed Read Putin has ignored the Islamic State's claim of responsibility for the concert hall shooting
By Peter Weber, The Week US Published
-
'A "conservative voice" does not spread misinformation for political advantage'
Instant Opinion Opinion, comment and editorials of the day
By Harold Maass, The Week US Published
-
Barack Obama 'behind Starmer transformation'
Under The Radar The former US president urged Labour leader to 'talk more openly'
By Chas Newkey-Burden, The Week UK Published
-
Trump-RNC pact puts Trump legal bills ahead of GOP
Speed Read The former president has struck a deal with the Republican National Committee to put donations toward his legal bills
By Peter Weber, The Week US Published