In their "bloodiest military confrontation" in more than a decade, historic enemies Thailand and Cambodia have "traded heavy artillery and rocket fire" across their disputed border, said Al Jazeera, killing at least 16 people and displacing tens of thousands of civilians.
Thailand's acting prime minister, Phumtham Wechayachai, warned that clashes could lead to all-out conflict.
What did the commentators say? The dispute "dates back more than a hundred years", said the BBC, to when French administrators plotted a frontier between what was then Siam and French Indochina. Thailand has never accepted the colonial-era border, but tensions "ramped up" in May after a Cambodian soldier was killed in a skirmish.
Most analysts think "prolonged conflict is unlikely", said The Telegraph, because "previous exchanges of fire have all dissipated relatively quickly" – but recent events have "fanned nationalist sentiment", especially in Thailand. The dispute has had significant "political ramifications", notably the suspension of Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra. The shaken Thai government "fears being seen as weak".
Pressure on Thailand's political and military leaders is "mounting", said Tita Sanglee, a Thai-based fellow at the ISEAS–Yusof Ishak Institute, so "restraint may no longer be viable".
The conflict has had "flare-ups" before, said Al Jazeera, but "the real concern this time is the usage of really heavy guns". The Cambodians are using Grad rockets and have accused Thailand of dropping widely banned cluster bombs. "It's really just stepping up and stepping up."
If "months of simmering tensions" did lead to war, Thailand could draw on a much stronger military, said Reuters. Cambodia has 124,300 active personnel, while Thailand can call on more than 360,000 – and a far bigger defence budget.
China's "strong economic ties" with Cambodia and Thailand mean it has leverage over both, said The Guardian, but it's thought to be "more closely aligned with Cambodia" – which could "create unease" in Bangkok.
What next? Cambodia has asked the International Court of Justice to mediate, but this is "unlikely to lead to a resolution" because Thailand doesn't accept the court's jurisdiction, said The Guardian.
Thailand has also rejected an offer from Malaysia, which chairs the Association of South East Asian Nations, to facilitate talks, insisting the issue must be solved bilaterally. Both nations are leaving the door open for negotiation, said Time, but it "seems unlikely" that the dispute will be resolved soon. |