“Buy when there’s blood in the streets, even if the blood is your own,” was the maxim of 19th-century banker Nathan Rothschild. Not all other investors have shared his appetite for risk but most have always seen gold as the ultimate safe haven – and no more so than today, with the price of the precious metal soaring 50% this year, far outpacing returns from equities. In October, the gold value hit $4,380 an ounce, an all-time record.
What is driving the gold rush? The gold price increase has been largely driven by uncertainty – “whether that is geopolitical” or “economic”, Ryan McIntyre, from investment management firm Sprott, told The New York Times. Institutions are attracted to gold as a store of value in times of crisis, the latest of which include tariff wars and fears of an AI stock crash.
Central banks, too, have increasingly sought protection “not against short-term meltdowns but longer-run changes”, said The Economist. According to the International Monetary Fund, central bank holdings of physical gold in emerging markets have risen 161% since 2006, with purchases going into overdrive in the wake of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Both China and Russia have ramped up switching their official reserve assets out of currencies such as the US dollar and into gold.
The US government shutdown also increased “long” positions held by hedge funds on gold futures, meaning that speculators are “the most likely drivers of recent price movements”.
What does it all mean? Citadel CEO Ken Griffin recently said the rising price of gold is an indication of something big. “That something is a loss of trust,” said The Telegraph. “A loss of trust first and foremost in US treasuries, but also in other G7 government bond markets, including the UK.”
Stress in the long-term bond markets combined with a devaluation of the US dollar, which suffered its biggest decline in more than half a century this year, have unsettled investments usually seen as low risk.
The “exploding gold prices” are a “warning sign”, said Paolo Pasquariello, professor of finance at the University of Michigan. It is a “leading indicator of troublesome times ahead for the US economy”.
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