Iran’s supreme leader has blamed foreign actors for anti-government protests that have rocked the regime and left “several thousands” of people dead in recent weeks. Ayatollah Ali Khamenei accused the US and Israel of direct involvement in the violence, following a brutal crackdown on protesters by the government. While his remarks largely reaffirmed Iran’s longstanding position, “what stood out”, said Al Jazeera, “was the scale of the alleged death toll”.
‘Wide disparity in death estimates’ Estimates of how many have died since unrest broke out across Iran on 28 December have ranged from several hundred to more than 20,000. A communications blackout has hindered information flows and independent verification of deaths.
The Human Rights Activists News Agency, an Iranian outlet based in Washington, puts the number of confirmed fatalities at more than 4,000, with 9,000 further fatalities under review, after analysing reports from the ground and contacting mortuaries and hospitals. A separate report compiled by doctors inside Iran suggests the number of civilians killed could be as high as 20,000.
The “wide disparity in estimates” from rights groups and independent news agencies “mostly comes down to methodology”, said The Wall Street Journal. But if the figures emerging amid the current violence are “roughly accurate”, the total exceeds those in other major crackdowns worldwide including the killing of demonstrators in Cairo following a military coup in 2013 and the Tiananmen Square massacre in China in 1989.
‘Purely psychological warfare’ As the latest Iran protests spread and Donald Trump threatened to intervene militarily if the killing continued, the regime had an “incentive to under-report the toll and its opposition to exaggerate it”, said The Times. But there has been a noticeable shift in recent days as the immediate threat to the regime appears to have receded. A government official put the toll at 2,000 on 13 January. On Sunday, an Iranian official told Reuters that the authorities had verified that at least 5,000 people had been killed, including about 500 security personnel. The regime blamed “terrorists and armed rioters” for the death of “innocent Iranians”.
The regime’s propaganda machine has also been “working to intimidate protesters and break their momentum”, said ABC News. Some of the few videos to emerge amid the communications blackout show long lines of body bags outside morgues in Tehran. “This is purely psychological warfare to scare people”, said human rights journalist Saba Vasef, and “part of a systemic, deliberate, deterrence-based, state-sponsored terrorism”.
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