Ukraine’s air defences are “dwindling”, said international relations expert Rajan Menon in The New York Times. And Vladimir Putin is “planning to make the most of it”. Although Russia is struggling to replace an estimated 30,000 battlefield casualties a month, its president appears “adamant he will pay whatever price – human or financial – necessary to win”.
US special envoys Jared Kushner and Steve Witkoff met Putin in Moscow last week, before travelling to Ukraine to meet Volodymyr Zelenskyy, with the aim of resuming trilateral peace negotiations in September. But senior Kremlin officials subsequently “doubled down on Putin’s demands for Ukrainian capitulation”, said the Institute for the Study of War.
What did the commentators say? This year has brought “a series of Ukrainian successes that led many to believe Kyiv may have regained the initiative”, said Miro Sedlák on the Atlantic Council website. But the “technological gap” between Russia and Ukraine is narrowing. And Russia is gearing up for “massive strikes” on Ukraine’s energy grid over the winter, in a bid to “break morale” and increase pressure on Zelenskyy to “seek a deal”, said Menon in The New York Times.
Ukraine’s drone strikes are still “inflicting pain on some of the most strategic sectors of the Russian economy”, said Alexander Osipovich in The Wall Street Journal. But Zelenskyy is “deluded about Ukraine’s chances of defeating Russia”, said Owen Matthews in The Spectator. Western sanctions on Russia have “basically failed” because of the West’s “hunger” for its cheap oil and gas, and now Ukraine is heading into “the hardest and most punishing winter of war” about to run out of missiles, men and money.
What next? After next week’s Russian parliamentary elections are done and dusted, “we’ll see whether Putin is going to throw the kitchen sink at this wall to finish it, in his view, once and for all”, said Sky News military analyst Michael Clarke.
Alternatively, he may try to freeze the conflict or agree to a temporary ceasefire, said Tisdall in The Guardian. But a ceasefire without “cast-iron, pre-agreed security guarantees” could leave Ukraine more, not less, “vulnerable to renewed aggression”.
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