Climate change doesn’t just pose an existential threat to our planet; it’s also ratcheting up security risks. With increasing food insecurity, resource scarcity and unstable borders, global warming could lead to a rise in political tensions around the world.
An unpredictable climate “leads to heightened risks of interpersonal and intergroup violence”, according to the World Economic Forum. A one-degree Celsius uptick in temperature can “increase interpersonal violence by approximately 2%, while intergroup conflict risk” can increase by “2.5% to 5%”.
This is largely attributed to resource loss. With a two-degree change, “not only will there be continual extreme weather events, but the average climate will have changed so that crops now grown can no longer survive; water shortages will become widespread; and food will be in short supply”, said Kevin Trenberth, a climate scientist at the National Center for Atmospheric Research, on Newsroom.
As a result we will see climate refugees deepen “regional conflicts that could explode to encompass many countries”, added Trenberth. Climate change “takes things that we were already worried about, like extremism or terrorism, and exacerbates the scale or nature of those threats,” Scott Moore, a practice professor of political science at the University of Pennsylvania, told Time magazine. “If you have these intensified climate change impacts, they place stress on things like food systems and worsen already existing tensions within countries.” |