Russian forces last month lost more territory to Ukraine than they were able to capture. This marks a potential turning point in Moscow’s yearslong invasion. At the same time, Russia is losing soldiers faster than it can recruit and deploy them. While the Ukrainian front remains an active war zone, there’s a growing sense that momentum has shifted in Kyiv’s favor.
What did the commentators say? Russia’s “diminished” Victory Day parade this month “signaled its vulnerability,” said The Economist. That sentiment was an “accurate reflection of Russia’s battlefield setbacks,” as well as the country’s “fear of the growing effectiveness of Ukraine’s long-range strikes.”
Russia’s weakened position can be traced to a confluence of three factors, according to research from the Institute for the Study of War: Ukrainian “ground counterattacks and midrange strikes,” the end of Russia’s “illicit use of Starlink terminals in Ukraine,” and the Kremlin’s “paranoid throttling of the Telegram messaging app at home,” said The Economist. At the same time, Russia’s “territorial ambitions and aggressive demands” have run “completely counter to battlefield reality,” said the institute.
May marks the fifth consecutive month in which Russia has lost “more soldiers than it can replace,” said National Security Journal. In addition to Ukraine’s military technological advances, communications failures “contributed significantly,” said the Atlantic Council. After SpaceX “cut the Russian army’s access to the satellite-based Starlink system” this spring, Russian commanders were “forced to rely on inaccurate maps” showing “exaggerated gains.” Some Russian troops were even deployed “without adequate communication tools or coordination.”
The public mood within Russia is “souring,” said the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center. Russians “increasingly chafe” at the “restrictions on their liberties” imposed in pursuit of an unattainable victory, said Noah Rothman at the National Review.
What next? The Russian military’s “communications problems” are “unlikely to persist in their current form,” said the Atlantic Council, and Moscow has already explored a “range of alternatives.” But it will take a “number of years” for the Russian military to “replicate the same level of efficiency previously provided by Starlink.” Russia’s flagging battlefield progress, meanwhile, is a problem for Putin, who “insisted that Russia’s victory in the war is inevitable,” said CNN.
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