The U.S. economy is shifting toward disinflation. Here's why that's 'most welcome.'
When Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell announced a relatively small 25-basis-point hike in benchmark U.S. interest rates last week, he really talked up the idea of disinflation.
Inflation is still much higher than the Fed's 2 percent target — it was 6.5 percent year-over-year in December, from a peak of 9.1 percent in June — but it is dropping, and that disinflation is "most welcome," Powell said. In all, Reuters reports, he used the word disinflation 15 times in his 45-minute news conference on Wednesday.
"That disinflationary process that you now see underway is really at an early stage," Powell said. "You see inflation now coming down because supply chains have been fixed, demand is shifting back to services, and shortages have been abated." He added that odds are up for a soft landing, and "it is a good thing that the disinflation that we have seen so far has not come at the expense of a weaker labor market."
Subscribe to The Week
Escape your echo chamber. Get the facts behind the news, plus analysis from multiple perspectives.
Sign up for The Week's Free Newsletters
From our morning news briefing to a weekly Good News Newsletter, get the best of The Week delivered directly to your inbox.
From our morning news briefing to a weekly Good News Newsletter, get the best of The Week delivered directly to your inbox.
Disinflation, or a drop in the rate of inflation, is generally good for consumers and, ultimately, the economy, especially when inflation is high. It is different than deflation, or a decline in overall prices, which is considered problematic for the economy. "Falling prices tend to sap economic strength, as households for instance put off purchases knowing they could get a better deal if they wait, which eats at spending and can in turn deepen price declines further," Reuters reports. Consumer spending makes up more than 70 percent of U.S. GDP.
The Federal Reserve has helped drive disinflation by raising interest rates, and thus the cost of borrowing, curbing spending. But it isn't doing this alone. Grocery chains and other large retailers are leaning on suppliers to cut wholesale prices, trying to slow or stop raising retail prices as shipping and material costs fall — and price-sensitive customers start shopping at discount stores, The Washington Post reports.
"During periods of slowing inflation, prices of commodity-linked items such as meat, produce, and dairy have historically decreased, while packaged foods haven't tended to change much," The Wall Street Journal reports, citing supermarket operators said. Large retailers typically have enough leverage to force pricing concessions from food packagers, too. "For now, shoppers who have paid for pricier goods — from kitchen appliances to laundry detergent to grocery staples — are unlikely to get much relief," the Post reports. "Rather, the best-case scenario is that inflation will not get any worse."
Sign up for Today's Best Articles in your inbox
A free daily email with the biggest news stories of the day – and the best features from TheWeek.com
Peter has worked as a news and culture writer and editor at The Week since the site's launch in 2008. He covers politics, world affairs, religion and cultural currents. His journalism career began as a copy editor at a financial newswire and has included editorial positions at The New York Times Magazine, Facts on File, and Oregon State University.
-
The mental health crisis affecting vets
Under The Radar Death of Hampshire vet highlights mental health issues plaguing the industry
By Chas Newkey-Burden, The Week UK Published
-
The Onion is having a very ironic laugh with Infowars
The Explainer The satirical newspaper is purchasing the controversial website out of bankruptcy
By Justin Klawans, The Week US Published
-
'Rahmbo, back from Japan, will be looking for a job? Really?'
Instant Opinion Opinion, comment and editorials of the day
By Justin Klawans, The Week US Published
-
3 tips to lower your household bills
The Explainer Prices on everything from eggs to auto insurance to rent have increased — but there are ways to make your bills more manageable
By Becca Stanek, The Week US Published
-
Should you lease your next car?
The explainer To buy or to lease, that is the question
By Becca Stanek, The Week US Published
-
Where should you stash your savings after the Fed rate cut?
The Explainer You will not be earning as much on savings rates, so you may want to make some changes
By Becca Stanek, The Week US Published
-
What's next for US interest rates?
The Explainer Two rate cuts so far, with more likely to come
By Becca Stanek, The Week US Last updated
-
Where will inflation go next?
The Explainer Believe it or not, inflation is easing up
By Becca Stanek, The Week US Published
-
What financial impacts can you expect when the Fed finally cuts rates?
The Explainer The Federal Reserve is poised to slash interest rates in the coming months
By Becca Stanek, The Week US Published
-
What is shrinkflation and why is it happening?
The Explainer The practice reduces the size of a product without lowering the price — and it's perfectly legal
By Becca Stanek, The Week US Published
-
What is dynamic pricing, and how will its increasing adoption affect your wallet?
Speed Read The practice of adjusting prices based on demand is becoming more common
By Becca Stanek, The Week US Published