Can the Liberal Democrats win the Chesham and Amersham by-election?

With constituents in Chesham and Amersham ready to cast their votes in tomorrow’s by-election, new polling figures suggest the race might be tighter than anticipated.

The latest Liberal Democrat figures put the party on 41% compared to the Conservatives’ 45%, City A.M. reports, after earlier internal polls had put the Tories on an 11% lead.

The Buckinghamshire constituency has been a Tory safe seat since 1974 and the former MP and Welsh secretary Dame Cheryl Gillan held her position for 29 years. The by-election was called following Gillan’s death in April this year.

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Green Party candidate Carolyne Culver sees the election as “a referendum” on High Speed 2 (HS2), Buckinghamshire Live reports, while Tory backbenchers may have been right in their concerns that the government’s planning reforms would “alienate Conservative voters in the shires”, The Times adds. The new plans could see thousands of new homes built on the constituency’s green belt.

Meet the candidates

“I am treating this by-election like it’s the most marginal seat”, Tory candidate Peter Fleet told Buckinghamshire Live.

With the construction of HS2 already under way, Fleet is focusing “on continuing Dame Cheryl’s great work to minimise the disruption”, he told the BBC. If elected, the former Ford employee’s demands will include the creation of bridges for wildlife to safely cross the tracks.

A Chesham and Amersham local, Lib Dem candidate Sarah Green told the BBC that “HS2 is a big no”. “If elected I will be a thorn in the side of this Government and HS2 contractors.”

The businesswoman also sees the planning laws as a potentially “devastating blow to our area”, particularly in the wake of HS2’s impact.

While Labour “is not fighting this by-election vigorously”, according to The Independent’s chief political commentator John Rentoul, Labour candidate and former primary-school teacher Natasa Pantelic has received an endorsement from Tony Blair. One of her first plans, if elected, is to meet with HS2 and the transport secretary in a bid to improve communication on the project’s development.

Endorsed by StopHS2 campaign, Green Party candidate Carolyne Culver is prioritising protection of drinking water supplies that could be threatened by the project – although Reform UK’s Alex Wilson says his is the only party against HS2 in “principle and practice”, reports the BBC.

Reversing Brexit is “in the national interest and in the interests of Chesham and Amersham”, Rejoin EU’s Brendan Donnelly has told the BBC, while the Breakthrough Party’s candidate Carla Gregory plans to tackle inequality and Freedom Alliance’s Adrian Oliver promises to oppose vaccine passports and mask mandates as part of the pandemic recovery plans.

‘Upset’ in Tory safe seat?

The state of national politics “does not seem favourable to an anti-government protest vote”, says Rentoul.

And while the latest polling figures may seem promising for the Lib Dems, YouGov’s director of political research Anthony Wells told the Financial Times that winning will be “challenging” for the party.

The bookies still have the best odds on the Tories securing the seat, but The Times notes an “upset” isn’t impossible in an election that could be an early indication of whether Tory MPs were right to fear the impact of planning proposals for shire voters.