Why Hong Kong is in the middle of an Omicron ‘onslaught’

The government in Hong Kong is to begin prioritising hospital isolation space for children, older people and those with serious Covid-19 complications as a wave of infections threatens to swamp the city’s healthcare facilities.

“Recent days have seen record daily highs of more than 2,000 cases,” The Guardian reported, with experts warning that “the outbreak could reach about 30,000 a day”. The sudden spike has already meant “hospitals, testing facilities, and isolation centres have been swamped”, with pictures emerging “of spillover tents set up in hospital car parks”.

Hong Kong chief executive Carrie Lam said the city was in the midst of a Covid “onslaught”, warning that the fifth wave of the virus has “outgrown our capacity” while stating that there are currently “no plans whatsoever” for a widespread lockdown.

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Omicron surge

The new spike in infections is being driven by the Omicron variant and has put the government’s “zero Covid” plan under its most “critical test” since the pandemic began, the Financial Times (FT) reported.

The approach, which is also in effect in mainland China, “has been credited with saving lives and preventing the collapse of hospital systems seen elsewhere”. And while it is “unpopular with many expatriates because of travel restrictions, it allowed much of the city’s population to live pre-pandemic lifestyles for most of last year”.

But the rising tide of infections “has raised questions over the strategy’s sustainability”, the paper said, prompting Lam to declare on Friday that “the government will not give up. We will continue to do our best to achieve zero Covid”.

The reality on the ground is that Hong Kong is now having to decide whether to “live with Covid or lock down”, said Fortune. As it stands, officials have chosen to “do a bit of both”, but the record outbreak “has breached Hong Kong’s Covid defences” and may end up forcing “the city to rethink its response system”.

The city recorded eight Covid deaths last week, the first since September, while estimates put together by researchers at the University of Hong Kong have suggested that this fresh wave could kill more than 950 people by mid-June.

Such a sudden increase in cases prompted the introduction of Hong Kong’s “toughest social distancing measures to date” last week, The New York Times (NYT) said, “temporarily closing salons and houses of worship, and adding malls and grocery stores to a long list of public places that will require vaccination to enter”.

Officials also “met with a representative of China’s central government in the mainland city of Shenzhen”, the paper added. The meeting covered “the need to send mainland personnel to help increase testing capacity, but the details have yet to be determined”.

About-turn

While the increase in infections has seen tough social distancing restrictions reintroduced, the sudden spike has “ironically” forced the government to “reluctantly ease some of its strictest policies because it is running out of facilities to house patients and close contacts of those infected”, the FT said.

“International visitors arriving in Hong Kong or local residents who test positive for Covid are normally placed in isolation in hospital for a minimum of 10 days.”

But “with hospital and quarantine facilities under pressure from the latest outbreak, the government last week relaxed its extremely rigorous polymerase chain reaction (PCR) testing requirement for patients to leave hospital”, the paper reported.

The city is also experiencing “shortages of some vegetables that are imported from mainland China”, the NYT said. China is the source of more than 90% of the Hong Kong food supply. After “some truck drivers tested positive”, authorities in China ordered “a road junction for mainland and Hong Kong drivers to be closed for disinfection”, the paper added. Hong Kong authorities warned that it would impact supplies of “vegetables and chilled poultry”.

Critics of a zero Covid approach have described the strategy as a “dangerous dead end”, warning that most countries have ditched the plan and are relying on jabs and infection-acquired immunity to protect people.

But in countries where zero Covid has been the plan since day one, for example China, low levels of herd immunity mean that reopening is fraught with danger.

Lam has publicly suggested that there will be no about-turn in Hong Kong’s pandemic response, stating that “it is not an option to surrender to the virus”.

“The outbreak is unlikely to deter the authorities from pursuing zero Covid”, the FT predicted. And the influence of China would likely make such a change of approach impossible even if there were the political will among Hong Kong’s leaders.

China’s state-run news agency has repeatedly warned that Hong Kong shifting its strategy will “jeopardise the city’s economy and public health, and delay a long-awaited reopening of its border with the mainland for ordinary travellers”, the paper said.

The threat means Hongkongers should probably not hold their breath about a change of approach.