The real GOP race: Donald Trump's VP

Forget New Hampshire. The race for the GOP presidential nomination is all but over. The real action? Figuring out who will be Donald Trump's nominee for vice president.

Republicans are "buzzing with speculation about potential running mates," Axios reported. Mike Pence — the original Trump veep — is obviously off the list after their relationship broke during the Jan. 6 Capitol riot. But plenty of names are being tossed around, including Rep. Elise Stefanik (R-N.Y.), Sen. J.D. Vance (R-Ohio) and Nikki Haley, who just happens to be running against Trump for the nomination. One rule: "Unconditional loyalty to Trump a top priority for any potential running mate."

That probably means that Haley is an also-ran in the veepstakes, Politico reported. "Her Trumpworld foes are intensifying their own efforts to block her from the consolation prize of the vice presidency." Trump's allies see Haley as an establishment figure who — like Pence — might ultimately undercut his ambitions. "Nikki Haley as VP would be an establishment neocon fantasy and a MAGA nightmare," said Rep. Matt Gaetz (R-Fla.).

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Trump himself might already have a preference. NBC News reported that the former president admired Stefanik's questioning of university presidents about antisemitism on their campuses. "She's a killer," Trump reportedly said. More than her aggressiveness, Stefanik has the top attribute for the position: Loyalty to Trump.

'Central casting look'

Loyalty isn't the only consideration, though. Strategy matters. "His team has discussed possible parameters" for a nominee, The New York Times reported. Trump could pick a female candidate to "win back suburban women who abandoned him in the last election" or a person of color to expand his popularity among Black and Hispanic men. And they've got to look good: Trump prizes the know-it-when-you-see-it "central casting' look" among his lieutenants. 

There are other names in play. NewsNation reported that Dr. Ben Carson, Trump's secretary of Housing and Urban Development, has an "unusual camaraderie" with the former president that could put him on the list. Fans of South Dakota Gov. Kristi Noem are promoting her as a possibility, and is the literal betting favorite at one gambling website. And Kari Lake, the uber-Trumpist Republican running for Senate in Arizona, took a break from her own campaign to tout Trump in the Iowa caucuses. Mike Pompeo, Tim Scott and Sarah Huckabee Sanders have been mentioned, as well.

Another possibility: Tucker Carlson. The Hill reported that Donald Trump Jr. is a big fan of the former Fox News host. "I would love to see that happen," the president's son said in a television appearance. "That would certainly be a contender." But the loyalty thing might be an issue: In texts uncovered during Dominion's lawsuit against Fox, Carlson made clear his disdain for Trump. "I hate him passionately," Carlson wrote. That might make for an uncomfortable pairing. 

'The top of the ticket'

Does all this jockeying mean anything? "At the end of the day, people vote the top of the ticket," National Review's Rich Lowry argued at Politico. The job of the eventual nominee won't be to bring more votes to the GOP. Instead, that person's work will involve "deftly responding to constant controversies" while managing "the relationship with Trump himself." That's a difficult task: Pence was "masterly" at those tasks, until he wasn't. 

Trump — and the possible candidates — are all getting advice. Business Insider reported that Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.) is warning Haley, his fellow South Carolinian, that she might wreck her chances for the No. 2 slot if she continues her presidential campaign past New Hampshire. "The longer it goes and the more scar tissue accumulates, the less likely it is," Graham said. 

That may not matter to Haley. "I do not want to be vice president. Period. I don't know how many more times I can say that," Haley told WMUR this week, later adding: "I don't know how much more clear you get that I don't want to be vice president." If she truly doesn't want the job, there are plenty of Republicans in line to take it.