President Trump's demand to hold a new census to exclude undocumented immigrants is "almost certainly unconstitutional," said Ed Kilgore in New York. He announced the idea last week, saying, "People who are in our country illegally will NOT BE COUNTED IN THE CENSUS." But he didn't clarify if he's looking to immediately conduct a mid-decade count without undocumented immigrants or to just exclude them from the next scheduled census in 2030. The official population count, held every 10 years, determines how congressional seats are apportioned. Given how Republicans are scrambling to redraw district maps to gain House seats in Texas, it's likely Trump wants a new count before the 2026 midterms. Yet it takes years to organize and conduct a nationwide census, and the Constitution poses another obstacle: It plainly states the census counts "the whole number of persons in each State," regardless of immigration status. "He's claiming powers he just doesn't possess," but "he wouldn't be Trump if he didn't keep trying."
He could also encounter unexpected opposition from Republicans, said William Kristol in The Bulwark. Large populations of undocumented immigrants aren't limited to blue states, so Republicans could lose seats, too. Texas has the country's second-largest undocumented population and could lose two representatives. Florida has a sizable undocumented population, as do swing states Nevada, Arizona, and Georgia. "Imagine how mad Republicans would be" if they redraw maps and "end up with barely anything to show for it." Since excluding noncitizens isn't legally possible, said Rich Lowry in National Review, Trump should focus on what he can do to limit their impact on congressional representation: reduce their numbers. Thanks to deportations and self-deportations, there's already "been a large exodus" of the undocumented this year, giving us "net negative migration for the first time in a half century." The next census, in 2030, will "fully capture the changes he's effecting."
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