Can Texas redistricting save the US House for the GOP?

Republicans are looking for a lifeline. They have narrow, fragile control of the House of Representatives and could lose their majority entirely in next year's midterm elections. So the GOP is hoping Texas will provide a buffer.

Gov. Greg Abbott (R) wants the Texas Legislature to redraw the state's congressional maps "in a bid to gain Republican seats" for the national party during the 2026 midterms, said The New York Times. Texas has 38 seats in the House, 25 of which are held by the GOP. The redistricting plan was pushed by the Trump administration, which wants a "ruthless" approach and "would welcome any chance to pick up seats in the midterms." Democrats are opposed, naturally. Abbott's move is a "blatant partisan power grab," said State Rep. Gina Hinojosa.

Every state "redraws its maps once a decade" after the census, said The Hill. But the president's party faces "traditional headwinds" in midterm elections, and the GOP's 220-212 majority in the House leaves it particularly vulnerable. "It's a game of inches right now," said one Republican strategist.

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What did the commentators say?

"Texas is no stranger to gerrymandering," said The Dallas Morning News. But in a state as conservative as Texas, Republicans should be able to "win voters over with good ideas and strong policy" instead of playing games with congressional maps. The desire to preserve partisan advantage means districts are "drawn in radical ways with nonsensical shapes" that "defy logic and reason." The legislature should avoid the temptation. Democrats in the Lone Star State "deserve a voice just as much as their neighbors across the aisle."

The GOP's plans "could backfire," Mary Ellen Klas said at Bloomberg. The signs point to 2026 as a "wave election" for Democrats because of Trump's "chaotic and misguided policies." Texas Republicans may be tempted to go along with his gerrymandering demands, but the effort "would make most of their safe districts more competitive" by moving Republican voters out of safe-GOP districts to areas now held by Democrats. That makes redistricting a "high-risk maneuver" for the president's party, said the Brennan Center's Michael Li.

What next?

There are "cautionary tales" from past redistricting efforts, said The Texas Tribune. One current proposal would create as many as five new Republican seats, but it would "dilute the voting power of communities of color" and could "stretch GOP voters too thin." That would be unwise "both for political reasons but also for legal ones," Li said to the outlet, since such redistricting has typically invited civil rights lawsuits.

The worry among Republicans is that the proposal would save the party in 2026 "but puts those seats in jeopardy for the future," said John Colyandro, a former senior adviser to Abbott. "Be careful what you wish for," said House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-N.Y.). One other reason for caution: California officials are weighing "tit-for-tat" redistricting to help Democrats if Texas Republicans follow through on Trump's wishes, said the Tribune.