Inflation derailed Biden. Is Trump next?

Lots of factors contributed to the downfall of Joe Biden's presidency, but one voter complaint really stood out: The price of eggs. Inflation helped put President Donald Trump back in the White House. Could it derail his presidency, too?

New polling shows that Trump's approval rating among Republicans has "slipped steadily," said Axios. While GOP support for Trump is still robust at 83% of respondents, the wider picture shows the president's policies on inflation "aren't sitting well with Americans by and large." About half of Americans — 48% — "expect inflation to increase in the next six months." That is the highest number for that question since October 2023, and a sign that "financial anxiety" is on the rise as "Trump's trade war begins to show up in inflation data," with "costs soaring for grocery staples and critical materials."

What did the commentators say?

Trump is now "as unpopular on inflation as Biden was in 2022," said Strength In Numbers. Rising prices are a "continued source of stress for voters" no matter who is in charge. July polling showed that 61% of Americans "disapprove of how the president is handling inflation" and just more than half "disapprove of his policies on jobs and the economy." That is not what might have been expected "based on what Trump promised during the 2024 campaign."

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"Republicans need to beware the return of inflation," said the National Review editorial board. Inflation has been "stuck around 3% since June 2023" despite efforts to get it down to 2%, and the "administration isn't doing much to help." Trump's badgering of Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell to lower interest rates would "push the price level even higher." The GOP's deficit spending "isn't going to push prices lower" and neither will the president's tariffs. While a "variety of factors" are keeping inflation stubborn, "voters are unlikely to be interested in a technical conversation" about the causes.

Trump's campaign promises to bring down prices "may finally be catching up to him," said Ed Kilgore at New York magazine. It is possible that "inflation has already been baked into assessments of Trump's job performance." But Biden's example is instructive: Improved inflation numbers did not help him in the last two years of his presidency. Americans seem to want to "go back down to where they were before their post-pandemic spike." That can happen only with a recession. This will not be good news to voters who were "sold a bill of good by Trump."

What next?

A new report from Moody's Analytics predicts Trump's policies will "slow U.S. growth and push up inflation" but stop short of an outright recession," said USA Today. "It's not yet stagflation but it's edging that way," said Moody's Justin Begley.

Equis Research, a Latino polling organization, said a third of Latinos who voted for Trump last year are "not set on voting for a Republican" during the 2026 midterms, thanks to "economic issues such as persistently high prices on groceries," said NPR. That discontent "hasn't directly translated into support for Democrats, though."