What the House speaker's election denialism could mean for the 2024 race

New House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) isn't just another MAGA Republican: He's a true believer —  one of the architects of former President Donald Trump's failed, false efforts to overturn the 2020 election. Then he was a relatively minor figure. Now? The New York Times reported that some Democrats are nervous that Johnson's new prominence could play a role in 2024. "Given his history," said one observer, "we will have to be on our guard."

Johnson "never repudiated" his efforts to keep Trump in office, The Washington Post noted. The ingredients at play in 2020 appear likely to repeat in 2024: The same likely candidates — Trump and President Joe Biden — as well as the probability of a close election. Congress has reformed the Electoral Count Act since the last election, to limit mischief, but the speaker would still have "significant power to shape the rules" if no candidate gets a majority of electoral votes and the election gets thrown to a House vote. 

"Johnson went further — and did more" than other Republicans to keep Trump in power in 2020, Steve Benen argued at MSNBC. The new speaker didn't just vote against certifying Biden's victory: He also led a congressional effort backing a lawsuit to overturn Pennsylvania's electoral votes. Protect Democracy's Genevieve Nadeau told Benen that makes Johnson's move into leadership ahead of 2024 "actually very troubling."

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'Peril for the democratic process'

"It is truly frightening" that Johnson might play a role in the 2024 election, University of California Berkeley School of Law's Erwin Chemerinsky wrote in the Los Angeles Times. In addition to his procedural and legal efforts, Johnson "repeatedly" spread Trump's false claims that the 2020 election was rigged, amplifying conspiracy theories that voting machine software was suspect "because it came from Hugo Chávez's Venezuela." There's every reason to think Johnson will repeat his efforts the next time around — only this time from a position of power: "The peril for the democratic process is very great."

Don't expect Johnson to tip his hand. Republicans "know that election denial is not popular with the American people," David Graham observed at The Atlantic. Inside the House GOP though, it's the "mainstream" position — indeed "it might be a prerequisite for leadership." Jim Jordan lost his effort to become speaker in part because Republican moderates took issue with his election denialism in 2020. It turns out the difference between Jordan and Johnson is merely one of style: Johnson is "just Jim Jordan with a suit jacket, conservative glasses, and a less hectoring voice." 

But Johnson and his GOP allies can't duck the question of election denialism forever, Adam Wren argued at Politico. "It's the question defining this turbulent political moment in Washington and beyond — roiling and coursing just below the surface." Johnson's rise, combined with Trump's legal issues, means the issue of election denialism will remain front and center, both now and in the near future. "For Republicans, Jan. 6, like the past, is not dead. It's not even past."

Using the bully pulpit

One person who is — seemingly — unworried about what Johnson might do in 2024: Joe Biden. "Just like I was not worried that the last guy would be able to overturn the election," Biden told reporters on Wednesday, according to The Hill. Biden added: "I understand the Constitution."

Of course, The New York Times noted, Johnson might not even be speaker when it comes time to certify the 2024 election in January 2025. Democrats might win back control of the House. And even if Republicans win, recent GOP speakers haven't exactly had the longest runs in office before their colleagues rebelled against them. But if he remains at the helm of the House, Johnson's attempts to influence the election outcomes will probably be more political, using the bully pulpit provided by his platform, than procedural: The path for Congress to defy the expressed will of American voters is still fairly narrow. "His main power," said Rep. Jamie Raskin (D-Md.) "would be as party leader."