Six Nations: what each team needs to win

The Six Nations reaches what should be a thrilling climax on Saturday as England, Ireland and Wales all go into the final round of matches on six points with a realistic chance of lifting the trophy. The French can also mathematically triumph although it would need a miracle – not to mention a deluge of points – for them to be crowned champions at around 7pm today. As it stands, England lead the field with a points difference of 37, then Ireland with 33 and Wales on 12.

So with so much at stake, and so many possible outcomes, we've done the hard work in providing you with the lowdown on rugby's runners and riders.

Wales

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The disappointment of losing to England on the opening weekend of the championship has been offset by consecutive victories over Scotland, France and Ireland. On six points but with a points difference of just 12, the Welsh will need to run up a cricket score against the Italians and hope England and Ireland both lose. If the Welsh win by at least 22 points in Rome and Ireland lose then they'll finish second, and if they smash the Italians by 26 points or more and England also fail, then Warren Gatland's team will be champions.

Though Italy's morale is at rock-bottom after their 29-0 defeat at home to France last Sunday, the one area they will have a marked superiority is in the scrum with Wales fielding two inexperienced Test props in Aaron Jarvis and Rob Evans following injuries to Samson Lee and Gethin Jenkins. The Azzurri, though, will be without inspirational captain and No8 Sergio Parisse.

Italy vs Wales, 12.30pm, BBC1

Ireland

Irish hopes of a Grand Slam came to grief in a match of bone-jarring intensity in Cardiff last weekend, but they are very much in contention for the title against the weakest side in this year's tournament. Scotland are the only team without a win going into the final weekend and coach Vern Cotter has made two changes to the XV that lost to England on Saturday. Out go flanker Rob Harley and prop Alasdair Dickinson, replaced by Adam Ashe and Ryan Grant.

Ireland also make just a couple of tweaks to their starting line-up with experienced loose-head prop Cian Healy fit again and replacing Jack McGrath, while Simon Zebo makes way for Luke Fitzgerald on the wing. Last week's defeat to Wales ended Ireland's ten-match winning streak and though the Scots are on course to collect the wooden spoon, the Irish will tread carefully at Murrayfield. They've lost three of their last six matches against the Scots, but should they win tomorrow and England lose they will take the title (providing Wales don't score a ton of points in Rome). Ireland could also finish top if they and England both win but their winning margin is by enough points to erode England's slender points difference advantage.

Scotland v Ireland. 2.30pm, BBC1

England

England are in the enviable position of playing last on Super Saturday, so they will run out at Twickenham at 5pm knowing exactly what they must do to win. With a superior points difference of just four over Ireland, they will probably need to score tries against France, no easy task because although the French don't score many themselves these days (onlyfour this championship), they've conceded just two in four Six Nations matches. Where once 'Le Crunch' was always the highlight of the Six Nations, France aren't the power they once where and have managed just three wins in the last decade against England. Coach Stuart Lancaster has made just one change to the side that beat Scotland, recalling the fit-again Geoff Parling in the second-row at the expense of Dave Attwood.

England v France, 5pm, BBC1

France

France, who have lost to Wales and Ireland this season, could pinch the title if those two teams lose and they beat England by a margin of eight points or more. That's unlikely, however, with the French without a Six Nations win at Twickenham since 2005 and the squad low on morale with even their own coach - Philippe Saint-Andre – questioning their application. Injuries to prop Eddy Ben Arous and fly-half Camille Lopez means first starts in this season's championship to Jules Plisson and Vincent Debaty.

If teams are level on points, and match-points difference, then England will probably win the title (their first since 2011) because the Championship will be decided on tries scored, and the English have scored 11 to Ireland's four and Wales' five.