Nate Silver thinks the Royals should have blown Game 7

Nate Silver thinks the Royals should have blown Game 7
(Image credit: Ezra Shaw/Getty Images)

With two outs in the bottom of the ninth of Game 7, the Kansas City Royals' Alex Gordon lined a single that, thanks to some Giants bumbling, let him scoot all the way to third base. And after crunching the numbers on the probability the Royals would drive Gordon in later in the inning, Nate Silver concludes they should have sent Gordon home on the hit. "It would have been the right move if he was safe even 30 percent of the time," he concludes.

I trust Silver's math. But the problem here is there's no reason to assume Gordon would have been safe 30 percent of the time. Rather, he would likely have been out by a mile. Look at the replay:

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Jon Terbush

Jon Terbush is an associate editor at TheWeek.com covering politics, sports, and other things he finds interesting. He has previously written for Talking Points Memo, Raw Story, and Business Insider.