Nate Silver thinks the Royals should have blown Game 7
With two outs in the bottom of the ninth of Game 7, the Kansas City Royals' Alex Gordon lined a single that, thanks to some Giants bumbling, let him scoot all the way to third base. And after crunching the numbers on the probability the Royals would drive Gordon in later in the inning, Nate Silver concludes they should have sent Gordon home on the hit. "It would have been the right move if he was safe even 30 percent of the time," he concludes.
I trust Silver's math. But the problem here is there's no reason to assume Gordon would have been safe 30 percent of the time. Rather, he would likely have been out by a mile. Look at the replay:
You can see cutoff man Brandon Crawford receiving the ball as Gordon chugs into third. If Gordon heads home, Crawford — who has a powerful arm — easily guns him down at the plate.
Subscribe to The Week
Escape your echo chamber. Get the facts behind the news, plus analysis from multiple perspectives.
Sign up for The Week's Free Newsletters
From our morning news briefing to a weekly Good News Newsletter, get the best of The Week delivered directly to your inbox.
From our morning news briefing to a weekly Good News Newsletter, get the best of The Week delivered directly to your inbox.
Had Gordon run hard all the way — he appeared to slow up around first, assuming the ball would be cut off — maybe he had a shot. But by the time that ball got back to the Crawford there was no way Gordon was going to make it, and the Royals' season would have ended on a TOOTBLAN, one batter sooner.
Create an account with the same email registered to your subscription to unlock access.
Sign up for Today's Best Articles in your inbox
A free daily email with the biggest news stories of the day – and the best features from TheWeek.com
Jon Terbush is an associate editor at TheWeek.com covering politics, sports, and other things he finds interesting. He has previously written for Talking Points Memo, Raw Story, and Business Insider.
-
5 fact-checked cartoons about the VP debate
Cartoons Artists take on civil disagreements, admissions, and more
By The Week US Published
-
The Japanese villages where time stood still
The Week Recommends Up to 200 villagers cooperate to thatch a roof in a single day, preserving this beautiful tradition
By The Week UK Published
-
Crossword: October 6, 2024
The Week's daily crossword
By The Week Staff Published
-
'Manipulated' photo of UK's Princess Kate spiked
speed read The first official image of Kate Middleton since January has been retracted
By Peter Weber, The Week US Published
-
King Charles diagnosed with cancer
Speed Read Monarch 'remains wholly positive about his treatment', during which senior royals are expected to stand in for him
By Arion McNicoll, The Week UK Published
-
Princess of Wales to remain in hospital for two weeks as King prepares for prostate treatment
Speed Read The timing of the two royal medical announcements was said to be an 'unavoidable coincidence'
By Richard Windsor, The Week UK Published
-
King laughs about his 'sausage fingers' in new documentary
Speed Read Charles's ample digits have long attracted 'attention and concern' but he is often the 'first to poke fun'
By Chas Newkey-Burden, The Week UK Published
-
Prince Harry: judge rules 'extensive' phone hacking carried out by Mirror Group papers
Speed Read High Court rules in Duke's favour as he urges police investigation, claiming editors lied under oath at Leveson Inquiry
By Harriet Marsden, The Week UK Published
-
Spokesman: Harry and Meghan asked to 'vacate' Frogmore Cottage
Speed Read
By Catherine Garcia Published
-
Australia is erasing Britain's monarchy from its paper currency, sidelining King Charles III
Speed Read
By Peter Weber Published
-
Prince Harry and Stephen Colbert go deep on the royals, the British press, Harry's frostnipped 'todger'
Speed Read
By Peter Weber Published