Poll: Gov. Scott Walker pulls ahead with likely voters

Gov. Scott Walker (R-Wis.) might just be regaining a narrow advantage in his race for re-election, according to the new survey from Marquette University Law School — thanks in part to the makeup of who is likely to vote.

Among registered voters, Walker and his Democratic opponent, businesswoman Mary Burke, are tied at 46 percent each. But among likely voters, Walker is ahead with 49 percent, compared to Burke's 46 percent. The survey was conducted from Sept. 11 to 14; the margin of error is plus or minus 3.5 percentage points among registered voters, and plus or minus 4.1 percentage points among likely voters.

In the previous Marquette poll from last month, Walker led by three points among registered voters, while Burke led among likely voters by two points.

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The poll's director, Professor Charles Franklin, explained that relative to last month's survey, the change in the results is largely due to an "enthusiasm shift" in the makeup of the likely-voter pool: Self-identified Republicans have currently become more likely than they were before to vote — while the enthusiasm of Democratic respondents to vote has actually down. He reiterated, however, that the race continues to be within the margin of error among likely voters.