There is actually a small chance that a magnitude 9 earthquake will hit Seattle this year
Yesterday, The New Yorker's Kathryn Schulz reported that there is a one-in-10 chance of an enormous 9.0-or-higher earthquake hitting the Pacific Northwest at some point in the next 50 years. Seattle, Tacoma, Portland, Eugene, Salem, and Olympia are all at risk; an estimated 13,000 could die.
To (somewhat) calm the growing panic, The Seattle Times hosted a Reddit AMA with the director of the Pacific Northwest Seismic Network, John Vidale, as well as Debbie Goetz of Seattle's Emergency Management Office and Sandi Doughton, a science writer for the Times. They revealed that, as of right now, the chances of the apocalyptic earthquake striking in 2015 are about one in 300. Which doesn't seem like a lot, but it's actually far more likely than your odds of dying in a car accident (one in 4,000) or dating a supermodel (one in 88,000).
But look on the bright side — there's a 299-in-300 chance the quake won't happen this year (but don't let that stop you from preparing for it!).
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That said, a "pretty big one" is still likely to hit sometime soon, with scientists saying there are one-in-three odds it occurs in the next 50 years. "You're overwhelming likely to see some action in the Pacific Northwest," Vidale said.
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Jeva Lange was the executive editor at TheWeek.com. She formerly served as The Week's deputy editor and culture critic. She is also a contributor to Screen Slate, and her writing has appeared in The New York Daily News, The Awl, Vice, and Gothamist, among other publications. Jeva lives in New York City. Follow her on Twitter.
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