There is actually a small chance that a magnitude 9 earthquake will hit Seattle this year


Yesterday, The New Yorker's Kathryn Schulz reported that there is a one-in-10 chance of an enormous 9.0-or-higher earthquake hitting the Pacific Northwest at some point in the next 50 years. Seattle, Tacoma, Portland, Eugene, Salem, and Olympia are all at risk; an estimated 13,000 could die.
To (somewhat) calm the growing panic, The Seattle Times hosted a Reddit AMA with the director of the Pacific Northwest Seismic Network, John Vidale, as well as Debbie Goetz of Seattle's Emergency Management Office and Sandi Doughton, a science writer for the Times. They revealed that, as of right now, the chances of the apocalyptic earthquake striking in 2015 are about one in 300. Which doesn't seem like a lot, but it's actually far more likely than your odds of dying in a car accident (one in 4,000) or dating a supermodel (one in 88,000).
But look on the bright side — there's a 299-in-300 chance the quake won't happen this year (but don't let that stop you from preparing for it!).
Subscribe to The Week
Escape your echo chamber. Get the facts behind the news, plus analysis from multiple perspectives.

Sign up for The Week's Free Newsletters
From our morning news briefing to a weekly Good News Newsletter, get the best of The Week delivered directly to your inbox.
From our morning news briefing to a weekly Good News Newsletter, get the best of The Week delivered directly to your inbox.
That said, a "pretty big one" is still likely to hit sometime soon, with scientists saying there are one-in-three odds it occurs in the next 50 years. "You're overwhelming likely to see some action in the Pacific Northwest," Vidale said.
A free daily email with the biggest news stories of the day – and the best features from TheWeek.com
Jeva Lange was the executive editor at TheWeek.com. She formerly served as The Week's deputy editor and culture critic. She is also a contributor to Screen Slate, and her writing has appeared in The New York Daily News, The Awl, Vice, and Gothamist, among other publications. Jeva lives in New York City. Follow her on Twitter.
-
How generative AI is changing the way we write and speak
In The Spotlight ChatGPT and other large language model tools are quietly influencing which words we use
-
How long can Nato keep Donald Trump happy?
Today's Big Question Military alliance pulls out all the stops to woo US president on his peacemaker victory lap
-
Easy Money: the Charles Ponzi Story – an 'enlightening' podcast
The Week Recommends Apple Original podcast explores the 'fascinating' tale of the man who gave the investment scam its name
-
Shakespeare not an absent spouse, study proposes
speed read A letter fragment suggests that the Shakespeares lived together all along, says scholar Matthew Steggle
-
New Mexico to investigate death of Gene Hackman, wife
speed read The Oscar-winning actor and his wife Betsy Arakawa were found dead in their home with no signs of foul play
-
Giant schnauzer wins top prize at Westminster show
Speed Read Monty won best in show at the 149th Westminster Kennel Club dog show
-
Beyoncé, Kendrick Lamar take top Grammys
Speed Read Beyoncé took home album of the year for 'Cowboy Carter' and Kendrick Lamar's diss track 'Not Like Us' won five awards
-
The Louvre is giving 'Mona Lisa' her own room
Speed Read The world's most-visited art museum is getting a major renovation
-
Honda and Nissan in merger talks
Speed Read The companies are currently Japan's second and third-biggest automakers, respectively
-
Taylor Swift wraps up record-shattering Eras tour
Speed Read The pop star finally ended her long-running tour in Vancouver, Canada
-
Drake claims illegal boosting, defamation
Speed Read The rapper accused Universal Music of boosting Kendrick Lamar's diss track and said UMG allowed him to be falsely accused of pedophilia