On Monday, Australia's ruling conservative Liberal Party is voting on a challenge to Prime Minister Tony Abbott's leadership from former party leader Malcolm Turnbull (pictured), who resigned as communications minister to mount a bid to unseat Abbott. If the 101 Liberal lawmakers vote in favor of Turnbull, he will automatically become not just party leader but also prime minister. "I will be a candidate and I expect to win," Abbott told reporters on Monday.
Analysts aren't so sure. Abbott led the Liberal Party to victory in 2013, but his popularity has steadily declined since then, and most recent polls suggest a Labor Party victory in national elections next year. "It is clear that the people have made up their mind about Mr. Abbott's leadership," said Turnbull, a social moderate and policy centrist popular with swing voters but not with the party's conservative wing. "Now if we continue with Mr. Abbott as prime minister, it is clear what will happen, he will cease to be prime minister and will be succeeded by [Labor leader Bill] Shorten."
But the Labor Party's recent history with mid-rule leadership switches might save Abbott's job. "After being toppled by his deputy Julia Gillard, Labor PM Kevin Rudd seized back his old job in a reverse coup only to lose it forever when the public punished his party at a general election in 2013," explains BBC News editor Wendy Frew. But there are signs that the Liberal-National governing coalition might be through with Abbott anyway, she adds: "As one unnamed cabinet minister told local media on Monday morning: 'This time I think they will get him.'"
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