National Review analysis: Jeb Bush 'has almost no chance of being the GOP nominee'
In a fascinating analysis at the conservative magazine National Review, Lawrence Brinton, a pseudonym for a political operative who has supposedly "informally advised several 2016 campaigns," lays out a compelling case that establishment favorite Jeb Bush has "almost no chance" of winning the 2016 Republican nomination. Brinton bases his analysis on Bush's third-quarter fundraising numbers, which show that the cash for his campaign comes overwhelmingly from major donors — indicating a lack of support from grassroots voters who are not only necessary to build enthusiasm for a campaign, but who also in recent election cycles have become a financial force in their own right.
Brinton's analysis is damning. The ratio of Bush's big-donor and small-donor amounts is a wildly unbalanced 15:1, comparing unfavorably to Hillary Clinton (3:1), Marco Rubio (1.7:1), Ted Cruz (1:1.6), and Republican frontrunner Donald Trump (1:6.5). (As Brinton notes, Trump has not even been an active fund-raiser, and would likely be an attractive candidate to both major donors and small donors.) Bush even trails Mitt Romney at this stage of the 2008 election cycle, with the former private equity titan boasting a healthier 7:1 ratio. George W. Bush had a 12:1 ratio at this stage of the 2000 race, but Brinton argues that he was competitive in the small donor range and dominant in the middle donor range, whereas Jeb is very weak in both areas.
Based on historical patterns, Brinton concludes that "Jeb Bush cannot win." He adds, "No candidate has ever won the nomination with such a heavy reliance on big donors, even at a time when big-donor money made up a much larger percentage of total fundraising." Brinton says that the candidate in the best position to win is Cruz, and that Rubio, Carly Fiorina, and Trump are also in the mix.
Subscribe to The Week
Escape your echo chamber. Get the facts behind the news, plus analysis from multiple perspectives.
Sign up for The Week's Free Newsletters
From our morning news briefing to a weekly Good News Newsletter, get the best of The Week delivered directly to your inbox.
From our morning news briefing to a weekly Good News Newsletter, get the best of The Week delivered directly to your inbox.
Read the entire analysis at National Review.
Create an account with the same email registered to your subscription to unlock access.
Sign up for Today's Best Articles in your inbox
A free daily email with the biggest news stories of the day – and the best features from TheWeek.com
Ryu Spaeth is deputy editor at TheWeek.com. Follow him on Twitter.
-
'A direct, protracted war with Israel is not something Iran is equipped to fight'
Instant Opinion Opinion, comment and editorials of the day
By Harold Maass, The Week US Published
-
Today's political cartoons - April 17, 2024
Cartoons Wednesday's cartoons - political anxiety, jury sorting hat, and more
By The Week US Published
-
Arid Gulf states hit with year's worth of rain
Speed Read The historic flooding in Dubai is tied to climate change
By Peter Weber, The Week US Published
-
Why Johnson won't just pass Ukraine aid
Speed Read The House Speaker could have sent $60 billion in military aid to Ukraine — but it would have split his caucus
By Peter Weber, The Week US Published
-
Sudan on brink of collapse after a year of war
Speed Read 18 million people face famine as the country continues its bloody downward spiral
By Peter Weber, The Week US Published
-
Trump's first criminal trial starts with jury picks
Speed Read The former president faces charges related to hush money payments made to adult film star Stormy Daniels
By Peter Weber, The Week US Published
-
How will Israel respond to Iran's direct attack?
Speed Read Iran’s weekend attack on Israel could escalate into a wider Middle East war
By Peter Weber, The Week US Published
-
US, Israel brace for Iran retaliatory strikes
Speed Read An Iranian attack on Israel is believed to be imminent
By Peter Weber, The Week US Published
-
Congress honors real-life Rosie the Riveters
Speed Read These American women reshaped the work force during World War II
By Peter Weber, The Week US Published
-
Outgunned Ukraine could fall, US general warns
Speed Read Without more US aid, Ukraine is at risk of losing the war
By Peter Weber, The Week US Published
-
House GOP scuttles FISA vote at Trump's urging
Speed Read Right-wing lawmakers blocked Speaker Mike Johnson's surveillance bill
By Rafi Schwartz, The Week US Published