National Review analysis: Jeb Bush 'has almost no chance of being the GOP nominee'
In a fascinating analysis at the conservative magazine National Review, Lawrence Brinton, a pseudonym for a political operative who has supposedly "informally advised several 2016 campaigns," lays out a compelling case that establishment favorite Jeb Bush has "almost no chance" of winning the 2016 Republican nomination. Brinton bases his analysis on Bush's third-quarter fundraising numbers, which show that the cash for his campaign comes overwhelmingly from major donors — indicating a lack of support from grassroots voters who are not only necessary to build enthusiasm for a campaign, but who also in recent election cycles have become a financial force in their own right.
Brinton's analysis is damning. The ratio of Bush's big-donor and small-donor amounts is a wildly unbalanced 15:1, comparing unfavorably to Hillary Clinton (3:1), Marco Rubio (1.7:1), Ted Cruz (1:1.6), and Republican frontrunner Donald Trump (1:6.5). (As Brinton notes, Trump has not even been an active fund-raiser, and would likely be an attractive candidate to both major donors and small donors.) Bush even trails Mitt Romney at this stage of the 2008 election cycle, with the former private equity titan boasting a healthier 7:1 ratio. George W. Bush had a 12:1 ratio at this stage of the 2000 race, but Brinton argues that he was competitive in the small donor range and dominant in the middle donor range, whereas Jeb is very weak in both areas.
Based on historical patterns, Brinton concludes that "Jeb Bush cannot win." He adds, "No candidate has ever won the nomination with such a heavy reliance on big donors, even at a time when big-donor money made up a much larger percentage of total fundraising." Brinton says that the candidate in the best position to win is Cruz, and that Rubio, Carly Fiorina, and Trump are also in the mix.
Subscribe to The Week
Escape your echo chamber. Get the facts behind the news, plus analysis from multiple perspectives.
Sign up for The Week's Free Newsletters
From our morning news briefing to a weekly Good News Newsletter, get the best of The Week delivered directly to your inbox.
From our morning news briefing to a weekly Good News Newsletter, get the best of The Week delivered directly to your inbox.
Read the entire analysis at National Review.
Sign up for Today's Best Articles in your inbox
A free daily email with the biggest news stories of the day – and the best features from TheWeek.com
Ryu Spaeth is deputy editor at TheWeek.com. Follow him on Twitter.
-
Saudi crown prince slams Israeli 'genocide' in Gaza
Speed Read Mohammed bin Salman has condemned Israel’s actions
By Peter Weber, The Week US Published
-
Trump fills key slots, tapping Congress, MAGA loyalists
Speed Read The president-elect continues to fill his administration with new foreign policy, environment and immigration roles assigned
By Rafi Schwartz, The Week US Published
-
Haiti council fires prime minister, boosting chaos
Speed Read Prime Minister Garry Conille was replaced with Alix Didier Fils-Aimé
By Peter Weber, The Week US Published
-
Trump tells next Senate GOP leader to skip confirmations
Speed Read The president-elect said the next Senate majority leader must allow him to make recess appointments
By Peter Weber, The Week US Published
-
Fed cuts rates, chair says he won't quit if Trump asks
Speed Read Jerome Powell was noncommittal on future rate cuts that were expected before Trump won the election
By Peter Weber, The Week US Published
-
Judge revives plea deal for 9/11 suspects
Speed Read A military judge has ruled to restore the plea deals struck by 9/11 mastermind Khalid Sheikh Mohammed and two co-conspirators
By Peter Weber, The Week US Published
-
Harris concedes as world prepares for Trump's return
Speed Read Vice President Kamala Harris told supporters it was important to 'accept the results of this election'
By Rafi Schwartz, The Week US Published
-
Abortion rights measures go 7 for 10
Speed Read Constitutional amendments to protect abortion passed in seven states but failed in three others: Florida, Nebraska and South Dakota
By Peter Weber, The Week US Published