Jeb Bush's last best hope: Copy John Kerry?

John Kerry, kissing babies in the doldrums of summer 2003

(Image credit: Michael Springer/Getty Images)

published 12 November 2015

Jeb Bush's campaign is on political deathwatch. He's "had a brutal few weeks," says Bill Scher at Politico Magazine, "and the vultures are circling," but he's essentially in the same sorry position as John Kerry in 2003. And that "was the start of a comeback story." In fact, Scher said, "the parallels between the Kerry and Bush predicaments at this stage of the race are beyond striking," starting with their 4 percent poll numbers just 27 days before the Iowa caucuses. The lesson from John Kerry '04, he adds: "You can be an uninspiring establishment candidate and still win the nomination. How? By being the last candidate left standing." Scher explains:

Kerry's victory was not predicated on getting a personality transplant. He stuck to his boring script, used his personal finances to keep the campaign afloat and waited for everyone else's weaknesses to become apparent. Once the others flopped, voters flocked to him as a safe harbor. Written off a few months earlier, Kerry ended up running the table, winning virtually every primary and caucus. Bush is in the same position Kerry was in November of 2003: floundering with the public yet surrounded by untested candidates and stocked with institutional resources. These are the necessary ingredients for outlasting the competition. [Scher, Politico]

Once Republican voters, angry at the GOP establishment (as Democrats were at the Democratic establishment in 2003), start to focus on beating Hillary Clinton, "'freak show' maestros like Donald Trump, Sen. Ted Cruz, and [Ben] Carson" will fall by the wayside, Scher argues. Sen. Marco Rubio may very well wilt under the glare of frontrunner vetting, as fellow fresh-faced freshman Sen. John Edwards would have. And "if Rubio cracks, Republican voters will have little choice but to shrug and accept Jeb Bush as the safe choice, just like Democrats did with Kerry."

That's not a terribly inspirational model, but it doesn't require Republican voters to fall in love with Bush or for Bush to become a great campaigner. Of course, neither Kerry nor Jeb's other model comeback kid, Sen. John McCain, went on to win the general election. But at least they both have powerful jobs. If the presidency doesn't work out, maybe Jeb Bush can angle for secretary of state in the second Trump administration. Read more of Scher's argument at Politico.

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Peter has worked as a news and culture writer and editor at The Week since the site's launch in 2008. He covers politics, world affairs, religion and cultural currents. His journalism career began as a copy editor at a financial newswire and has included editorial positions at The New York Times Magazine, Facts on File, and Oregon State University.

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