Why the polls failed in Iowa — and why they might fail again in New Hampshire

Another loser from Monday night: the polls.

(Image credit: Joe Raedle/Getty Images)

published 3 February 2016

Thirteen polls showed Donald Trump winning Iowa on the eve of Monday's caucus, only for him to pull up in a humbling second place behind Ted Cruz. With the results differing from the predictions to such an extent, pollsters are now trying to pinpoint exactly where they went wrong.

"It is really difficult to predict [the outcome] in a caucus state when there are so many candidates,” Notre Dame University political scientist Darren W. Davis told USA Today. Experts also admitted they had underestimated turnout among evangelical voters and confessed that the "angry electorate" was difficult to gauge.

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Jeva Lange was the executive editor at TheWeek.com. She formerly served as The Week's deputy editor and culture critic. She is also a contributor to Screen Slate, and her writing has appeared in The New York Daily News, The Awl, Vice, and Gothamist, among other publications. Jeva lives in New York City. Follow her on Twitter.

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