Why the polls failed in Iowa — and why they might fail again in New Hampshire


Thirteen polls showed Donald Trump winning Iowa on the eve of Monday's caucus, only for him to pull up in a humbling second place behind Ted Cruz. With the results differing from the predictions to such an extent, pollsters are now trying to pinpoint exactly where they went wrong.
"It is really difficult to predict [the outcome] in a caucus state when there are so many candidates,” Notre Dame University political scientist Darren W. Davis told USA Today. Experts also admitted they had underestimated turnout among evangelical voters and confessed that the "angry electorate" was difficult to gauge.
GOP media consultant Brad Todd said, “Polling as a whole is becoming more challenging as it gets more difficult to reach voters in a random manner and keep them engaged for a full survey. Most media and university surveys are cheap and use methodological shortcuts that make them even more error-prone."
Subscribe to The Week
Escape your echo chamber. Get the facts behind the news, plus analysis from multiple perspectives.

Sign up for The Week's Free Newsletters
From our morning news briefing to a weekly Good News Newsletter, get the best of The Week delivered directly to your inbox.
From our morning news briefing to a weekly Good News Newsletter, get the best of The Week delivered directly to your inbox.
And it might be even worse in New Hampshire, a state that is "notorious for breaking late and people deciding late in the game," according to analyst Amy Walter.
Davis said the press hype surrounding the polls was part of the problem. "It really sets up pollsters to fail," he said, adding that in New Hampshire the public and press need to be "a little less excitable and a little more discerning."
Sign up for Today's Best Articles in your inbox
A free daily email with the biggest news stories of the day – and the best features from TheWeek.com
Jeva Lange was the executive editor at TheWeek.com. She formerly served as The Week's deputy editor and culture critic. She is also a contributor to Screen Slate, and her writing has appeared in The New York Daily News, The Awl, Vice, and Gothamist, among other publications. Jeva lives in New York City. Follow her on Twitter.
-
Make mine a soju and tonic: the rise of Korea's favourite spirit
The Week Recommends The rice-based drink can replace gin or vodka in traditional cocktails for a refreshing twist on the classics
-
The full moon calendar for every month
In depth When to see the lunar phenomenon every month
-
The end of WeightWatchers
Talking Point The diet brand has filed for bankruptcy in the US as it struggles to survive in era of weight-loss jabs
-
Trump taps Fox News' Pirro for DC attorney post
speed read The president has named Fox News host Jeanine Pirro to be the top federal prosecutor for Washington, replacing acting US Attorney Ed Martin
-
Trump, UK's Starmer outline first post-tariff deal
speed read President Donald Trump and British Prime Minister Kier Starmer struck a 'historic' agreement to eliminate some of the former's imposed tariffs
-
Fed leaves rates unchanged as Powell warns on tariffs
speed read The Federal Reserve says the risks of higher inflation and unemployment are increasing under Trump's tariffs
-
Denmark to grill US envoy on Greenland spying report
speed read The Trump administration ramped up spying on Greenland, says reporting by The Wall Street Journal
-
Supreme Court allows transgender troop ban
speed read The US Supreme Court will let the Trump administration begin executing its ban on transgender military service members
-
Hollywood confounded by Trump's film tariff idea
speed read President Trump proposed a '100% tariff' on movies 'produced in foreign lands'
-
Trump offers migrants $1,000 to 'self-deport'
speed read The Department of Homeland Security says undocumented immigrants can leave the US in a more 'dignified way'
-
Trump is not sure he must follow the Constitution
speed read When asked about due process for migrants in a TV interview, President Trump said he didn't know whether he had to uphold the Fifth Amendment