Donald Trump and Bernie Sanders face oddly similar odds of cinching the nomination
Bernie Sanders beat Hillary Clinton in Wisconsin's primary on Tuesday, and Donald Trump lost to Ted Cruz. And yet, David Wasserman notes at FiveThiryEight, "after tonight both Trump and Sanders need 58 percent of remaining delegates to reach a majority (in Sanders' case, this refers to pledged delegates only)." That's doable for both candidates, but Sanders has a higher hill to climb because Democrats generally split their delegates proportionally, while the Republicans have more winner-take-all states.
But the 58 percent threshold for an outright win isn't the only way Sanders and Trump face similar odds. "I'm not sure I buy this," Nate Silver cautions at FiveThirtyEight, "but given the Democrats' heavy advantage in general election polling, Sanders (at 9.6 percent) is almost as likely as Trump (11.4 percent) to become the next president, according to betting markets." It's something to think about, anyway.
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