Donald Trump and Bernie Sanders face oddly similar odds of cinching the nomination
Bernie Sanders beat Hillary Clinton in Wisconsin's primary on Tuesday, and Donald Trump lost to Ted Cruz. And yet, David Wasserman notes at FiveThiryEight, "after tonight both Trump and Sanders need 58 percent of remaining delegates to reach a majority (in Sanders' case, this refers to pledged delegates only)." That's doable for both candidates, but Sanders has a higher hill to climb because Democrats generally split their delegates proportionally, while the Republicans have more winner-take-all states.
But the 58 percent threshold for an outright win isn't the only way Sanders and Trump face similar odds. "I'm not sure I buy this," Nate Silver cautions at FiveThirtyEight, "but given the Democrats' heavy advantage in general election polling, Sanders (at 9.6 percent) is almost as likely as Trump (11.4 percent) to become the next president, according to betting markets." It's something to think about, anyway.
The Week
Escape your echo chamber. Get the facts behind the news, plus analysis from multiple perspectives.
Sign up for The Week's Free Newsletters
From our morning news briefing to a weekly Good News Newsletter, get the best of The Week delivered directly to your inbox.
From our morning news briefing to a weekly Good News Newsletter, get the best of The Week delivered directly to your inbox.
-
Corruption: The spy sheikh and the presidentFeature Trump is at the center of another scandal
-
Putin’s shadow warFeature The Kremlin is waging a campaign of sabotage and subversion against Ukraine’s allies in the West
-
Media: Why did Bezos gut ‘The Washington Post’?Feature Possibilities include to curry favor with Trump or to try to end financial losses
-
Judge orders Washington slavery exhibit restoredSpeed Read The Trump administration took down displays about slavery at the President’s House Site in Philadelphia
-
Hyatt chair joins growing list of Epstein files losersSpeed Read Thomas Pritzker stepped down as executive chair of the Hyatt Hotels Corporation over his ties with Jeffrey Epstein and Ghislaine Maxwell
-
Judge blocks Hegseth from punishing Kelly over videoSpeed Read Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth pushed for the senator to be demoted over a video in which he reminds military officials they should refuse illegal orders
-
Trump’s EPA kills legal basis for federal climate policySpeed Read The government’s authority to regulate several planet-warming pollutants has been repealed
-
House votes to end Trump’s Canada tariffsSpeed Read Six Republicans joined with Democrats to repeal the president’s tariffs
-
Bondi, Democrats clash over Epstein in hearingSpeed Read Attorney General Pam Bondi ignored survivors of convicted sex offender Jeffrey Epstein and demanded that Democrats apologize to Trump
-
El Paso airspace closure tied to FAA-Pentagon standoffSpeed Read The closure in the Texas border city stemmed from disagreements between the Federal Aviation Administration and Pentagon officials over drone-related tests
-
Judge blocks Trump suit for Michigan voter rollsSpeed Read A Trump-appointed federal judge rejected the administration’s demand for voters’ personal data
